Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We use secondary corporate loan-market prices to construct a novel loan-market-based credit spread. This measure has considerable predictive power for economic activity across macroeconomic outcomes in both the U.S. and Europe and captures unique information not contained in public market credit spr...
Keywords: credit spreads, Secondary loan market, bonds, credit supply, Business cycle, COVID-19
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We outline two divergent exit strategies of the U.S. from the post COVID-19 debt-overhang, and analyze their implications on Emerging Markets and global stability. The first strategy is the U.S. aiming at returning to the 2019, pre-COVID mode of loose fiscal policy and accommodating monetary policy....
Keywords: COVID-19, interest rate, public debt, growth rate
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We provide evidence consistent with a “credit-line drawdown channel” to explain the large and persistent crash of bank stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stock prices of banks with large ex-ante exposures to undrawn credit lines and large ex-post gross drawdowns declined more, especially...
Keywords: Credit lines, liquidity risk, bank capital, loan supply, stress tests, Pandemic
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We estimate a workhorse DSGE model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint. First, we propose a new specification of the occasionally binding constraint, where the transition between the unconstrained and constrained states is a stochastic function of the leverage level and the constraint ...
Keywords: financial crises, Business Cycles, Endogenous Regime-Switching, Bayesian Estima- tion, Occasionally Binding Constraints, Mexico.
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

For most of the post WWII period, until recently, trade protectionism followed a downward trend, and was formulated in multilateral or bilateral agreements between countries. Recently however, there hasbeen a sharp shift towards unilateral, discretionary trade policy focused on short term macroecono...
Keywords: Protectionism, currency wars, Trade Wars
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