Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Lucia FOSTER , Brian LUCKING, Scott OHLMACHER, Itay SAPORTA-EKSTEN
The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS) utilized innovative methodology to collect five-point forecast distributions over own future shipments, employment, and capital and materials expenditures for 35,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. First and second moments o...
Keywords: Subjective Forecast Distributions, business-level uncertainty, forecast quality
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

COVID-19 Shifted Patent Applications toward Technologies that Support Working from Home

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Yulia ZHESTKOVA
We examine the text content of U.S. patent applications, identifying those that advance technologies in support of video conferencing, telecommuting, remote interactivity, and working from home (collectively, WFH). The share of new patent applications that advance WFH technologies more than doubles ...
Keywords: directed technical change, patents, COVID-19, Coronavirus, working from home, remote interactivity, text analysis
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Taxing the rich to finance redistribution - Evidence from a permanent tax increase in Singapore

Sumit AGARWAL, Wenlan QIAN, Bernard YEUNG, Huanhuan ZHENG
Based on a representative sample of consumer financial transaction data, this paper studies the consumption and savings response to a 2015 permanent increase in the marginal income tax of the high-income taxpayers. Using difference-in-differences regressions, controlling for individual and time fixe...
Keywords: income tax, Consumption, savings, redistributive policy, Fiscal Policy
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

The Real Impact of FinTech: Evidence from Mobile Payment Technology

Sumit AGARWAL, Wenlan QIAN, Bernard YEUNG, Yuan REN , Hsin-Tien TSAI
We utilize the introduction of a mobile payment technology by the largest bank in Singapore in 2017 to study how mobile payment technology reshapes economic activities and stimulates business creation. After the introduction, business-to-consumer industries witnessed a higher growth rate of business...
Keywords: FinTech, Mobile payment, Cash, Credit card, Real effect, Small business, Business creation, Entrepreneurship, Consumption, banking, Digital economy, Transaction cost, Inclusive growth
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

Steven J. DAVIS, Dingqian LIU, Xuguang Simon SHENG
Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid February to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30 percent from 17 February to 12 March, before mobility declined. Over the next 11 days, stocks fell another 10 percentage points as mobility dropped 40 ...
Keywords: stock prices, lockdown policies, market shutdowns, Coronavirus, COVID-19, workplace mobility, China
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