Ten Keys in Beating Back Cov-19 and the Associated Economic Pandemic

In a Project Syndicate column that I wrote on January 27, 2020, I predicted a turning point in the spread of the novel coronavirus in China by the second or third week of February and the end of the epidemic by early May. That projection is based on a combination of the experience in ending the SARS epidemic in 2003 with aggressive government actions and the information on the life cycle of the virus. We now do see a clear turning point in China — the total number of serious and critical cases have been on a declining path since February 22, 2020, and the new case count has stayed low since mid-February.