Long-term Investing with the Ebb and Flow of Low Returns
The ABFER/CAMRI Industry Panel and Roundtable
The ebb and flow of asset values post the GFC has been staggering. Long-term investing and asset allocation have become a challenge and more complex as interest rates in many geographies have been driven to zero and the signs ahead are uncertain at best. The global energy and commodities markets are faced with grim prospects, the global currency imbalances have added to the shaky equilibrium, and government, corporate and private debt levels are also surging.
- What lies ahead in the middle- to longer-term investment horizon?
- Does the current market malaise open up new opportunities, particularly in the infrastructure funding and investments space?
- What are the prospects for capital markets? When will stability and liquidity return to the financial markets?
A panel of top investment experts from across the various asset classes and regions will address these and many more of your questions, and shed some light on the path, headwinds and prospects ahead, along with a multi-business cycle discussion on investments, asset allocation, long term capital (including infrastructure), bonds, and liquidity from the perspective of institutional investors.
Panelists and Chair
Professor Joseph Cherian (Chair)
Centre for Asset Management Research & Investments (CAMRI) at National University of Singapore,
Practice Professor of Finance and Director
Joseph Cherian was formerly an Executive-in-Residence at Cornell University's Johnson Graduate School of Management, where he remains a two-term member of the Johnson Dean's Advisory Council.Prior to that, Joe was Managing Director, Global Head, and CIO of the Quantitative Strategies Group within Credit Suisse Alternative Investments in New York, where he had direct responsibility for over US$67 billion in client assets managed to a quantitative discipline.
While at Credit Suisse, Joe also served on the Global Executive Committee and various senior management, investments, and risk committees of the Asset Management division. Joe joined Credit Suisse in 2004 from Banc of America Capital Management, also in New York, where he was Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager of their asset allocation funds. Previously, he was an Associate Professor of Finance at Boston University. He has authored numerous articles for financial journals, and serves on the Scientific Advisory Boards of Nipun Capital, a boutique hedge fund based in San Francisco.
Joe has or had appointments at the Ministry of Manpower's CPF Advisory Panel, the Singapore International Mediation Centre's Panel of Technical Experts, the National Research Foundation's Early Stage Venture Fund Evaluation Panel in Singapore, and the Journal of Alternative Investments' Editorial Board. He formerly served as a review board member of the Research Foundation of the CFA Institute, and on the Scientific Advisory Board of net Decide Corp., Orissa Group, a pioneer in the development and dissemination of liquidity-based data and analytical products across multiple asset classes, and SKG Inc., all based in the US. Joe holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from MIT, and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Finance from Cornell University.
Professor Darrell Duffie
Stanford University, Stanford Graduate School of Business, The Dean Witter Distinguished Professorship of Finance,
Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and
Professor of Economics (by courtesy), School of Humanities and Sciences
Darrell Duffie is the Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. He is a Fellow and member of the Council of the Econometric Society, a Research Fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a member of the board of directors of Moody’s Corporation since 2008.
Duffie was the 2009 president of the American Finance Association. He currently chairs the Market Participants Group, charged by the Financial Stability Board with recommending reforms to Libor, Euribor, and other interest rate benchmarks. Duffie’s recent books include How Big Banks Fail (Princeton University Press, 2010), Measuring Corporate Default Risk (Oxford University Press, 2011), and Dark Markets (Princeton University Press, 2012).
Mr Huang Jing
Harvard Center Shanghai, Managing Executive Director
Mr Huang is Managing Executive Director at Harvard Center Shanghai. He came to Harvard from a distinguished venture capital and private equity career. Most recently, Mr. Huang was Partner of TPG Growth and RMB Funds, based in Shanghai, China. Before TPG, he was Managing Director at Bain Capital LLC, where he set up and ran its Shanghai operations.
His other investment positions included Managing Director China at SOFTBANK Asia Infrastructure Fund (SAIF), Partner at SUNeVision Ventures and Senior Manager of Strategic Investment at Intel Capital. Before his investment career, Mr. Huang worked as Director of Research Operations at GartnerGroup, Co-founder/Vice President of Marketing at Mtone Wireless and English Lecturer at Communication University of China.
Before joining Harvard, Mr. Huang served as member of the Board of Governors at China Venture Capital Association (CVCA) and Deputy Chairman of Shanghai Private Equity Association (SHPEA). Mr. Huang received an M.B.A from Harvard Business School, an M.A. from Stanford University and a B.A. from Beijing Foreign Studies University.
Mr Teo Eng Cheong
Surbana Jurong, CEO, International
Teo Eng Cheong joined Surbana Jurong as CEO (International) on 1 January 2016. From 2011 to 2015, Eng Cheong was CEO of International Enterprise Singapore, the lead government agency responsible for spearheading the overseas growth of Singapore-based companies. Other leadership positions held by Eng Cheong prior to that included the CEO of the Competition Commission of Singapore and the Director-General of Singapore Customs.
In his earlier years, Eng Cheong also had experience in the Economic Development Board, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the then Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports as well as a two-year stint in Suzhou working on the China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park project.
Surbana Jurong has completed projects in more than 200 cities in more than 50 countries ranging from the nearby South-east Asian nations, China, India to countries further away in the Middle East, Africa and South America. These include Tianjin Eco City in China, Andhra Pradesh capital city in India, Hanthawaddy Airport in Myanmar and many others.
In Surbana Jurong’s next phase of growth, international growth will be a key focus. Eng Cheong believes strongly that it is important for Surbana Jurong to have a global presence in order to be a consultancy powerhouse. He will spearhead Surbana Jurong’s effort to expand its international footprint.
Dr Prakash Kannan
Government of Singapore Investment Corporation,
Senior Vice President, Economics & Investment Strategy and Head, Total Portfolio Management
Prakash Kannan is currently Head of Total Portfolio Management Division in EIS at GIC. He oversees a team that produces global macro and strategy analysis that supports GIC’s overall asset allocation.
Prior to the GIC, Dr. Kannan worked with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he was part of the team that produced the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report. His previous employment includes the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara) and GTE (now Verizon) Investment Management. He has published research articles in the European Economic Review, the Journal of International Money and Finance, and the BE Journal of Macroeconomics.
He has a Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University, and a bachelor’s degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Mr Atsushi Yoshikawa
Nomura Securities Co., Ltd, Advisor
Atsushi Yoshikawa was appointed Advisor of Nomura Securities in April 2016. Prior to his current role, he served as President and Group COO of Nomura Holdings from August 2012 to March 2016. He also served as CEO of Nomura’s Wholesale division from August 2012 to March 2014.
Since joining Nomura in 1978, Mr. Yoshikawa has held key positions across a number of the firm’s businesses, including Retail, Equity Sales, Investment Banking, and Asset Management. He served as CEO of Nomura’s Asset Management division and as President and CEO of Nomura Asset Management, Japan’s leading asset management firm, from April 2008 to June 2011.
In addition to his broad business background, Mr. Yoshikawa has extensive international experience having spent nearly 20 years outside Japan in Singapore, Hong Kong, and New York, including his experience as President and CEO of Nomura Holding America. This has given him a unique insight into the firm’s international operations and global client base.
Mr. Yoshikawa graduated from the University of Tokyo with a BA in Economics and received an MBA from the National University of Singapore. He received the NUS Business School Eminent Business Alumni Award in 2014.
Fissures in the Global Financial System
This talk will discuss fissures in the existing global financial system against a backdrop of adverse demographic trends, signs of slowing productivity, rising populism in many advanced countries, a tapering off of the Chinese debt supercycle, and re-emergence of fissures in the European Union. Structural problems in the global financial system include an excessive reliance on debt finance, the outsized role of the US dollar and US Federal Reserve Policy, and the zero bound on global interest rates. What are vulnerabilities and risks in the current system, and how might it be reshaped to reduce them?
Professor Kenneth Rogoff (Keynote Speaker)
Harvard University, Professor of Economics and Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy
Kenneth Rogoff is Thomas D. Cabot Professor at Harvard University. From 2001-2003, Rogoff served as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. His 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly has been very widely cited by academics, policymakers and journalists.
One regularity that Reinhart and Rogoff illustrate is the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the run-up and the aftermath of severe financial crises. In general, they show that for financial crises, the differences between emerging markets and advanced countries are far less pronounced that previously believed. Rogoff is also known for his seminal work on exchange rates and on central bank independence.
His treatise Foundations of International Macroeconomics (joint with Maurice Obstfeld) is the standard graduate text in the field worldwide. His monthly syndicated column on global economic issues is published in over 50 countries. He serves on the Economic Advisory Panel of the New York Federal Reserve. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Rogoff is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Group of Thirty. Rogoff is among the top eight on RePec’s ranking of economists by scholarly citations. He is also an international grandmaster of chess.
For more on Professor Rogoff’s research, opinion pieces, and bio, see http://scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff
Dr Wei Shang-Jin (Moderator)
Asian Development Bank, (ADB) Chief Economist
Wei Shang-Jin is the Chief Economist of Asian Development Bank and Director General of its Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department. Dr. Wei is the chief spokesperson for ADB on economic and development trends, leads the production and dissemination of ADB's flagship knowledge products, as well as ADB's support for various regional cooperation fora such as ASEAN+3 and APEC.
Dr. Wei, born in the People's Republic of China and a national of the United States, has a long and distinguished career in academia and international finance and trade. Before joining ADB he was the N.T. Wang Chair and Director of the Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia University, Director of the National Bureau of Economic Research's working group on the Chinese economy, and a research fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (Europe).
Prior to Columbia University, Dr. Wei was an Assistant Director and Chief of Division at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he led the Fund's policy research and advised on issues in international trade, investment, globalization, and related topics. He was IMF Chief of Mission to Myanmar in 2004.
Dr. Wei served as an advisor on anti-corruption policy and research at the World Bank from 1999 to 2000. He was an assistant and associate professor at Harvard University from 1992 to 1999.
Dr. Wei is a recipient of Zhang Peigang Prize for Outstanding Scholarship in Development Economics (joint with R. Koopman and Z. Wang) for his pioneering research on global value chains that was published in the American Economic Review (2014), Sun Yefang Prize for Economic Science (joint with X. Zhang) for the invention of the theory of the competitive saving motive and its application to understanding the high savings patterns in Asia that was published in the Journal of Political Economy (2011), and Gregory Chow Best Paper Award (joint with X. Zhang) for a generalization of the competitive savings idea to a deeper understanding of entrepreneurship and economic growth.
Dr. Wei earned a PhD in Economics and a Master's degree in Finance from the University of California, Berkeley; a Master's degree in Economics from Pennsylvania State University; and a Bachelor's degree in World Economy from Fudan University in the People's Republic of China.
Professor Tan Chorh Chuan (Welcome Remarks)
National University of Singapore, President
Tan Chorh Chuan was appointed President of the National University of Singapore in December 2008. He concurrently serves as the Chairman of the Board of the National University Health System. Prof Tan's additional appointments include Deputy Chairman of Singapore's Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR); Senior Advisor to the Governing Board of Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School; Member, Board of Directors of the Monetary Authority of Singapore; and Member, Board of Directors of Mandai Safari Park Holdings.
A renal physician, he obtained his medical training at NUS, and research training at the Institute of Molecular Medicine, Oxford. He was Dean of the NUS Faculty of Medicine from 1997 to 2000. He served as the Director of Medical Services, Ministry of Health, from 2000 to 2004, in which capacity he was responsible for leading the public health response to the 2003 SARS epidemic. He held the positions of NUS Provost, then Senior Deputy President from 2004 to 2008. He also played a key role in setting up the Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, in his capacity as Deputy Chairman of the Governing Board from 2004 to 2007. As the inaugural Chief Executive of the National University Health System in 2008, he brought the NUS Medical and Dental Schools and the National University Hospital under single governance.
Prof Tan is a key leader in Singapore's Biomedical Sciences Initiative since its inception in 2000, for which he was awarded the National Science and Technology Medal in 2008. He also received the Public Service Star in 2003 for outstanding contributions to overcoming SARS in Singapore; the Public Administration Gold Medal in 2004 for his work as Director of Medical Services in the Ministry of Health; and the Meritorious Service Medal in 2015. Other awards include the 2015 Asia-Pacific Leadership Award from the Council for Advancement and Support of Education; the Dr John Yu Medal from the George Institute for Global Health, Australia; the Albert Schweitzer Gold Medal from the Polish Academy of Medicine; Honorary Doctor of Medicine from King's College; Honorary Doctor of Science from Duke University; Honorary Doctor of Science from Loughborough University; Achievement Medal from the Singapore Society of Nephrology and the 1996 Singapore Youth Award.
Prof Tan, who has been a member of the World Economic Forum's Global University Leaders Forum (GULF) since 2008, was appointed Chair of GULF in 2014 for a two-year term. He was the Chairperson of the International Alliance of Research Universities, a consortium of 10 leading research-intensive universities from 2008 – 2012, and is currently on the Steering Committee of the Association of Pacific Rim Universities.
Prof Tan was previously a Commonwealth Medical Fellow, Wellcome Fellow, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Scholar to Wolfson College, Oxford. He is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, Royal College of Physicians of London, the American College of Physicians, elected Fellow of the Polish Academy of Medicine and Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society, UK. Prof Tan is also the first Singaporean to be elected as an international member of the US National Academy of Medicine.