AMPF Papers

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Policy Note

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May 2023

Fiscal Events and Anchored Inflation Expectations

Ethan ILZETZKI
With inflation surging worldwide, some commentators have speculated whether inflation expectations have become unanchored. This policy note presents a framework to evaluate whether an inflationary spike is due to temporary shifts in policy or the real economy on one hand, or due to an unanchoring of...
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

SMEs Amidst the Pandemic and Reopening: Digital Edge and Transformation

Lin William CONG, Xiaohan YANG, Xiaobo ZHANG
Using administrative universal business registration data as well as primary offine and online surveys of small businesses (including unregistered self-employments) in China, we examine (i) whether digitization helps small and medium enterprises (SMEs) better cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, and (ii...
Keywords: COVID-19, Digital Economy, E-Commerce, Small Businesses
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Institutional Collaborator

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Institutional Collaborator

Does Paying Passive Managers to Engage Improve ESG Performance?

Marco BECHT, Julian FRANKS, Hideaki MIYAJIMA, Kazunori SUZUKI
The paper studies a natural experiment in responsible investment conducted by the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). In 2018 GPIF gave its largest passive manager a remunerated mandate to engage with portfolio companies to improve ESG and adopted best-in-class indexes, rewarding hig...
Keywords: ESG, active ownership, investor stewardship, engagement, ESG indexes, passive managers, portfolio tilting
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Growing the Efficient Frontier on Panel Trees

Lin William CONG, Guanhao FENG, Jingyu HE, Xin HE
We develop a new class of tree-based models (P-Trees) for analyzing (unbalanced) panel data using economically guided, global (instead of local) split criteria that guard against overfitting while preserving interpretability. To generalize security sorting and better estimate the efficient frontier,...
Keywords: Asset Pricing, Decision Tree, Factors, Interpretable AI, Investment
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Crypto Wash Trading

Lin William CONG, Xi LI, Ke TANG, Yang YANG
We present a systematic approach to detect fake transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges by exploiting robust statistical and behavioral regularities associated with authentic trading. Our sample consists of 29 centralized exchanges, among which the regulated ones feature transaction patterns consis...
Keywords: Bitcoin, CeFi, cryptocurrency, Forensic Finance, Fraud Detection, regulation
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