Frictional and Speculative Vacancies: The Effects of an Empty Homes Tax

In this paper, we study the implications of a vacant home tax for housing availability and affordability. We develop a model with owner-occupied homes, tenanted rental units, and empty houses. Housing units are constructed by competitive developers and supplied to local households, but can also be sold to investors as a store of wealth. Empty homes held by investors are classified as speculative vacancies. Frictional vacancies, on the other hand, are the equilibrium result of search-and-matching frictions in the owner-occupied market. A tax on empty homes can improve housing availability and affordability in the rental market by reducing speculative vacancies, but can distort the incentives to supply vacant homes for sale in the owner-occupied market (i.e., frictional vacancies), thereby increasing house prices and lowering home-ownership. Empirical predictions derived from the calibrated model are consistent with the patterns we observe for listings and sales in Vancouver following the recent implementation of an empty homes tax.