Housing Markets and the Belief in Opportunity

We study how housing-market signals shape beliefs about economic opportunity. Using a randomized information experiment in Singapore, we vary exposure to housing price dynamics and housing-related policy signals, then elicit expected social mobility for children from low and high social-position families. We find asymmetric belief updating. Rising house prices and higher property taxes lower perceived upward mobility for children from low social-position families, while leaving beliefs about children from high social-position families largely unchanged. Slower price growth and expanded subsidies do not raise perceived mobility. The results suggest attainability-based, reference-dependent belief formation: housing signals affect mobility beliefs by changing whether advancement appears within reach. Housing markets therefore shape opportunity beliefs not only through affordability constraints, but also through the perceived attainability of advancement.