Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2016

Systemic Default and Return Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets

Jack BAO, Kewei HOU, Shaojun ZHANG
We construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. Systemic default spikes during recessions, is correlated with macroeconomic indicators, and predic...
Keywords: systemic risk, Joint default, Predictability, Stock Returns, Bond returns
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2021

Sustainability or Performance? Ratings and Fund Managers' Incentives

Mariassunta GIANNETTI, Nickolay GANTCHEV, Rachel LI
We explore how mutual funds react when the tradeoff between sustainability and performance becomes salient. Following the introduction of Morningstar’s sustainability ratings (the “globe” ratings), mutual funds increased their holdings of sustainable stocks in order to improve their globe rati...
Keywords: Sustainability, ESG, Mutual Funds, Fund Flows, Ratings
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Supporting Seniors: How Low-Income Elderly Individuals Respond to a Retirement Support Program

Sumit AGARWAL, Wenlan QIAN, Bernard YEUNG, Tianyue RUAN
Longer life expectancy and insufficient savings expose individuals to financial vulnerability in older ages and prompt government support measures. We study a government cash subsidy program for the low-income elderly population in Singapore. Using comprehensive, high-frequency transaction data, we ...
Keywords: retirement support, cash transfer, Consumption, Liquidity Constraints
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

Super Debt Cities

Mathias HOFFMANN, Yi HUANG, Ye ZHANG
In response to the global financial crisis, the Chinese government launched a gigantic fiscal stimulus and the big four government-owned banks considerably expanded their lending. We show that this lending boom contributed significantly to the house-price boom across China since 2009. To identify th...
Keywords: lending boom, house-price boom, China, financial crisis
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2017

Subnational Debt of China: The Politics-Finance Nexus

Ru HONG, Haoyu GAO, Dragon Yongjun TANG
Using unique proprietary loan-level data, we provide the first comprehensive study on China’s local government debt, which was off-balance sheet. Policy and commercial banks, both of which are state owned, are the main financiers of local governments. We find that notwithstanding their prevalent n...
Keywords: Local Government Debt, China, China Development Bank, Policy Loans, Political Promotion
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