Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2016

Fiscal Conditions and Long-term Interest Rates

Koji NAKAMURA, Tomoyuki YAGI
We conduct a quantitative analysis of the effects of fiscal conditions and other factors on nominal long-term interest rates based on panel data of 23 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for the period from 1980 to 2013. In addition to labor productivit...
Keywords: Long-term interest rate, Fiscal balance, Debt outstanding, Current account, National burden ratio, Fiscal reconstruction, monetary policy
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2025

Firm-to-Firm Referrals

Jing CAI, Wei LIN, Adam SZEIDL
We make randomized firm-to-firm referrals between 700 supplier and client firms in the industry producing the Chinese writing brush. Subsidized referrals lead to subsequent transactions and a partial crowding out of prior partners; information-only referrals have no effect. The referrals increase re...
Keywords: Supplier-client Matching, Business Stealing, Searching Frictions, Pessimistic Beliefs
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Annual Conference

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Tech, Digital Markets and AI

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May 2025

Firm-Level Input Price Changes and Their Effects: A Deep Learning Approach

Sudheer CHAVA, Wendi DU, Indrajit MITRA, Andrea LU, Agam SHAH
We develop firm-level measures of input and output price changes based on textual analysis of earnings calls. Our measures establish five facts: (1) The median firm experiences an increase (decrease) in input prices every 7 (30) months. (2) Input price changes are driven by aggregate and firm specif...
Keywords: Input price changes, pass through, Earnings conference calls, deep learning, stock returns
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Annual Conference

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Accounting, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Firm News and Market Views: The Informational Role of Official Newspapers in China

Joseph D. PIOTROSKI, Tianyu ZHANG, T.J. WONG, Shubo ZHANG
State control can turn the media into the government’s mouthpiece and weaken the media’s incentives to meet market demands for corporate news. However, the media’s dependence on the government can strengthen its ability to access information about the government’s industrial and macro polici...
Keywords: Media information, Firm-specific information, Industry and market-wide information, emerging markets
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Annual Conference

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Corporate Finance

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May 2021

Firm Boundaries and Political Uncertainty: Evidence from State Elections in India

Arkodipta SARKAR
Using subsidiary-level data for Indian firms and staggered elections across Indian states, I find that political uncertainty’s impact on firm performance varies by organizational form. I find that the gap in leverage ratio between subsidiaries of conglomerate and stand-alone firms widen by 15% in ...
Keywords: Conglomerate, stand-alone, Political uncertainty, Leverage, Misallocation
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