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Annual Conference

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Accounting

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May 2024

Breaking the Language Barriers? Machine Translation Technology and Analysts’ Forecasts for Multinational Firms

Bingxu FANG, Pengkai LIN
We study the impact of machine translation technology on analysts’ forecasts for multinational firms. Exploiting the staggered rollout of Google Translate’s support to translate foreign languages into English, we find that U.S. analysts improve their forecast accuracy for firms with substantial ...
Keywords: Technology, Sell-Side Analysts, Machine Translation, Labor and Finance, Complementarity
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2025

Bottom-Up Institutional Change and Growth in China

Heng CHEN, Bingjing LI, Xiaodong ZHU
This paper investigates the role of bottom-up reforms in driving China’s economic growth. Leveraging granular documentation from county-level gazetteers, we identify local reform events from 1976 to 2005, capturing de facto policy innovations and their diffusion. Our findings show that bottom-up r...
Keywords: Bottom-up institutional change, TFP growth, policy diffusion, machine learning
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2017

Bonds, Stocks, and Sources of Mispricing

Doron AVRAMOV, Alexander PHILIPOV, Gergana JOSTOVA, Tarun CHORDIA
This paper shows that investor sentiment and financial distress jointly drive the equity overpricing underlying market anomalies. In particular, the intersection of high sentiment and rating downgrades of distressed firms characterizes episodes of inflated stock and bond prices to the extent that as...
Keywords: sentiment, mispricing, anomalies, bonds, stocks, Financial Distress
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2015

Bond Vigilantes and Inflation

Andrew K. ROSE, Mark M. SPIEGEL
This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a local, nominal, publicly traded, longmaturity, domestic currency bond market. Domestic bond markets have an unclear effect on inflation; they present issuing governments with the opportunity to inflate away their debt obli...
Keywords: empirical, panel, long, maturity, domestic, currency, risk, fixed, effect, nominal, Debt
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2019

Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate

Ilhyock SHIM, Boris HOFMANN, Hyun Song SHIN
In emerging market economies, currency appreciation goes hand in hand with compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is the ...
Keywords: Bond Spread, Capital Flow, Credit Risk, Emerging Market, exchange rate
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