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Structured Beliefs and Fund Performance: An LLM-Based Approach

Leveraging the unprecedented capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to assess sentiment across different topics within the same text, the authors extract the structured beliefs of all mutual fund managers in China based on their reports spanning 2008 to 2023, regarding the economy, government policies, and financial markets. Specifically, the authors construct a measure for countercyclical policy (CCP) beliefs, where managers anticipate that government policies will counteract economic shocks. The authors find that funds exhibiting frequent CCP beliefs (CCP funds) significantly outperform other funds. To explain this superior performance, the authors demonstrate that CCP funds’ market beliefs have stronger predictive power for market returns, their asset allocations show a stronger correlation with their market beliefs, and their performance is directly linked to their time-varying CCP beliefs.

16
Jan
2025
Thursday

Session Chair: Zheng (Michael) SONG
Wei Lun Professor of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong and Senior Fellow, ABFER

10:00 am
Structured Beliefs and Fund Performance: An LLM-Based Approach

Wei XIONG, John H. Scully '66 Professor in Finance and Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University and Senior Fellow, ABFER

Co-authors:
Zhenyu GAO, Associate Professor of Department of Finance, CUHK Business School, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Jian YUAN, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
10:25 am
Discussion
Discussant:
Zhen HUO, Associate Professor on Term of Economics, Yale Department of Economics, Yale University
10:50 am
Q&A
11:10 am

Updated 16 Jan 2025

Session Format

Each session lasts for 1 hour 10 minutes (25 minutes for the author, 25 minutes for the discussant and 20 minutes for participants' Q&A). Sessions will be recorded and posted on ABFER website, except in cases where speakers or discussants request us not to.

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