Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

Idiosyncrasy as a Leading Indicator

Randall MORCK, Bernard YEUNG, Lu Y. ZHANG
Disequilibrating macro shocks affect different firms' prospects differently, increasing idiosyncratic variation in forward-looking stock returns before affecting economic growth. Consistent with most such shocks from 1947 to 2020 enhancing productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return variation...
Keywords: Subjective expectations, business-level uncertainty
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Pandemic

Long Social Distancing

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Jose Maria BARRERO
More than ten percent of Americans with recent work experience say they will continue social distancing after the COVID-19 pandemic ends, and another 45 percent will do so in limited ways. We uncover this Long Social Distancing phenomenon in our monthly Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. ...
Keywords: Social distancing, infection worries, pandemic, labor force participation, potential output, college wage premium, self-assessed causal effects
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Pandemic

Investment and Subjective Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Lucia FOSTER, Scott OHLMACHER, Itay SAPORTA-EKSTEN
A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers’ subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed new survey measure of subjective uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000 manufact...
Keywords: Subjective expectations, business-level uncertainty
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Pandemic

Working from Home Around the World

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Jose Maria BARRERO, Cevat Giray AKSOY, Mathias DOLLS, Pablo ZARATE
The pandemic triggered a large, lasting shift to work from home (WFH). To study this shift, we survey full-time workers who finished primary school in 27 countries as of mid 2021 and early 2022. Our cross-country comparisons control for age, gender, education, and industry and treat the U.S. mean as...
Keywords: Work from home, preferences over working arrangements, commute times, COVID-19 pandemic, productivit
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Annual Conference

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Accounting, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

The Myth about Public versus Private Enforcement of Securities Laws - Evidence from Chinese Comment Letters

Kai LI, Ray ZHANG, Rafael ROGO, Tinghua DUAN
China presents a unique opportunity to study public enforcement of mandatory disclosure when private enforcement is largely absent. Using a hand-collected sample of comment letters (CLs) on annual reports issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we first show that the price reaction to CL announcement...
Keywords: public enforcement, private enforcement, institutional environment, comment letters, disclosure, ear
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