Commentaries

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2020, Pandemic

Post-COVID-19 Reconfiguration of the Global Value Chains and China

Bernard YEUNG, Hanming FANG
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Webinar Series

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Scott R. BAKER, Nicholas A. BLOOM, David E. ALTIG, Jose Maria BARRERO, Brent MEYER, Philip BUNN, Scarlet CHEN, Julia LEATHER, Emil MIHAYLOV, Paul MIZEN, Thomas RENAULT, Gregory THWAITES, Pawel SMIETANKA, Nicholas PARKER
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about business growth, forecaster disagreement about ...
Keywords: forward-looking uncertainty measures, volatility, COVID-19, Coronavirus
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks

Neng WANG, Jinqiang YANG, Harrison HONG
We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth but firms can mitigate damages. We estimate a large ...
Keywords: COVID-19, stochastic epidemic model, transmission volatility, Risk management, stock valuation
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending

Olivier COIBION, Yuriy GORODNICHENKO, Michael WEBER
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth lo...
Keywords: Subjective expectations, consumer spending, Labor market, Employment, COVID -19, Surveys
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Jose Maria BARRERO
Drawing on firm-level forecasts at a one-year horizon in the Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU), we construct novel, forward-looking reallocation measures for jobs and sales. These measures rise sharply after February 2020, reaching rates in April that are 2.4 (3.9) times the pre-COVID average for...
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, reallocation shock, Survey of Business Uncertainty, CARES Act
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