Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High Frequency Transaction Data

Wenlan QIAN, Haiqiang CHEN, Qiang WEN
We use daily transaction data in 214 cities to study the impact of COVID-19 on consumption after China’s outbreak in late January 2020. Based on difference-in-differences estimation, daily offline consumption—via UnionPay card and QR scanner transactions—fell by 32%, or 18.57 million RMB per c...
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Pandemic, Consumption, economic impact, Policy response, fiscal stimulus, transaction data
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Scott R. BAKER, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Stephen J. TERRY
Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, economic uncertainty
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk

Victoria Y. FAN, Dean T. JAMISON, Lawrence H. SUMMERS
Estimates of the long-term annual cost of global warming lie in the range of 0.2-2% of global income. This high cost has generated widespread political concern and commitment as manifested in the Paris agreements of December, 2015. Analyses in this paper suggest that the expected annual cost of pand...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Inclusive cost, risk
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Stress tests for Banks as Liquidity Insurers in a Time of COVID

Viral V. ACHARYA
Stock prices have declined and credit market conditions have tightened in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Firms typically respond to such outcomes by exercising their liquidity insurance and drawing down their credit lines. This column uses two ‘stress tests’ to demonstrate that the quantum o...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Liquidity insurance, stock prices
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Pandemic and Panic: Government as the Supplier of Last Resort

Chen LIN, Yi HUANG, Pengfei WANG, Zhiwei XU
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Governance
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