Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2024

The Long and Short-Run Spatial Impacts of Trade

Lin MA, Yunlong SONG, Yang TANG
We study the long and short-run spatial impacts of trade liberalization in a model with internal migration, skill formation, and capital accumulation. We show that the spatial impacts of trade on migration flows and skill composition depend critically on the time horizon. The time-varying impacts co...
Keywords: International trade, skill premium, economic geography, capital accumulation
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics

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May 2024

The Lasting Impact of Historical Residential Security Maps on Experienced Segregation

Daniel AARONSON, Joel Kaiyuan HAN, Daniel A. HARTLEY, Bhashkar MAZUMDER
We study the impact of the 1930s HOLC residential security maps on experienced segregation based on cell phone records which track visits out of and into home neighborhoods. We compare adjacent neighborhoods, one of which was assigned a lower grade for creditworthiness than the other. We use a sampl...
Keywords: Redlining, access to credit, experienced segregation, intergroup exposure, within-city mobility
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2023

The Intangible Borrowing Constraint of Entrepreneurship

Yu ZHENG, Lian ALLUB, Axelle FERRIERE, Luis FRANJO
With quantity-based innovation targets and subsidy programs launched since the mid-2000s, China has seen a patent surge, accounting for 46% of the world’s total patent applications in 2020; however, the overall patent quality has been steadily declining over time. This paper develops a Schumpeteri...
Keywords: Heterogeneous Innovations, Quantity-Based Subsidies, Human Capital
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2015

The Information Value of Sovereign Credit Rating Reports

Sumit AGARWAL, Vincent CHEN, Weina ZHANG, Geoffrey SIM
We examine the information value of sovereign credit rating reports issued by Moody’s in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) markets across 70 countries from 2003 to 2013. We find that the negative linguistic tone in the reports contains new information beyond credit rating actions. We code t...
Keywords: Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis, Linguistic Tone, Naïve Bayesian Algorithm;
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2014

The Information Value of Credit Rating Reports

Sumit AGARWAL, Vincent CHEN, Weina ZHANG
We test if Standard & Poor's (S&P) credit rating reports contain valuable information beyond credit ratings. We find that positive (negative) linguistic tone in the reports are significantly related to positive (negative) abnormal returns at the time of downgrade announcement and the tone ca...
Keywords: Credit Ratings, Credit Rating Agencies, Credit Rating Reports, Linguistic Tone
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