Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

The Macroeconomy After Tariffs

Andrew K. ROSE, Davide FURCERI, Swarnali A. HANNAN, Jonathan D. OSTRY
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs.  We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963‐2014.  We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines...
Keywords: protection, output, productivity, unemployment, inequality, exchange rate, trade balance
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

The Low Frequency Trading Arms Race: Machines Versus Delays

Alexander DICKERSON, Yoshio NOZAWA, Cesare ROBOTTI
We propose a novel framework to compute transaction costs of trading strategies using infrequently traded assets. The method explicitly accounts for the trade-off between bid-ask spreads and execution delays. The benefit of waiting for a better trading opportunity with lower bid-ask spreads is partl...
Keywords: Corporate Bonds, Liquidity, Machine-Learning, Market Efficiency, Fixed-Income Securities, Credit Risk
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics

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May 2024

The Long-Run Environmental Consequences of Land Development

Congyan HAN, Lu HAN, Vincent YAO
We study the long-run environmental impacts of land development activities using flood claims and land use data at the zip code level. Employing long differences and instrumental variable approaches, we find that an increase in developed land is associated with a significant increase in flood claims...
Keywords: Land Use, Flood Damage, Environmental Effects, Right to Work Law
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2013

The Long Term Effects of Bank Recapitalization

Sharon POCZTER
Do government-sponsored bank recapitalization programs spur lending and reduce risk? This paper assesses the impact of Indonesia’s bank recapitalization program on lending and bank risk following the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Using unique bank-level data, difference-in-differences estimates ...
Keywords: financial crisis, Bailouts, Government Intervention
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2024

The Long and Short-Run Spatial Impacts of Trade

Lin MA, Yunlong SONG, Yang TANG
We study the long and short-run spatial impacts of trade liberalization in a model with internal migration, skill formation, and capital accumulation. We show that the spatial impacts of trade on migration flows and skill composition depend critically on the time horizon. The time-varying impacts co...
Keywords: International trade, skill premium, economic geography, capital accumulation
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