Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Longer life expectancy and insufficient savings expose individuals to financial vulnerability in older ages and prompt government support measures. We study a government cash subsidy program for the low-income elderly population in Singapore. Using comprehensive, high-frequency transaction data, we ...
Keywords: retirement support, cash transfer, Consumption, Liquidity Constraints
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

In response to the global financial crisis, the Chinese government launched a gigantic fiscal stimulus and the big four government-owned banks considerably expanded their lending. We show that this lending boom contributed significantly to the house-price boom across China since 2009. To identify th...
Keywords: lending boom, house-price boom, China, financial crisis
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2017

Using unique proprietary loan-level data, we provide the first comprehensive study on China’s local government debt, which was off-balance sheet. Policy and commercial banks, both of which are state owned, are the main financiers of local governments. We find that notwithstanding their prevalent n...
Keywords: Local Government Debt, China, China Development Bank, Policy Loans, Political Promotion
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AMPF Papers

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Policy Note

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May 2023

Inflation expectations of households and firms are central determinants in all dynamic macro models. Yet, empirical evidence suggests these decision makers form expectations in ways that deviate from the assumptions in these models: on average, inflation expectations are biased upwards relative to e...
Keywords: Macroeconomics, Intertemporal Choice, Consumption, Savings, Surveys, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Experiments, Financial Decision-making, Cognition, Communication.
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Webinar Series

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Capital Market Development: China and Asia

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Jan 2025

Leveraging the unprecedented capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to assess sentiment across different topics within the same text, we extract the structured beliefs of all mutual fund managers in China based on their reports spanning 2008 to 2023, regarding the economy, government policies,...
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