Senior Fellows/Fellows

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2025

Tapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home

Jose Maria BARRERO, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Kathryn BONNEY, Cory BREAUX, Catherine BUFFINGTON, Steven J. DAVIS, Lucia FOSTER, Brian MCKENZIE, Keith SAVAGE, Cristina TELLO-TRILLO
The Business Trends and Outlook Survey collected detailed data on work from home (WFH) practices at more than 150,000 American firms from November 2024 to January 2025. These data fill a key gap by providing timely business-level measures of WFH for the U.S. economy and complementing parallel data c...
Keywords: Work from home, remote work, working arrangements, productivity, management practices, employee monitoring, business surveys, household surveys
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Taming the Bias Zoo

Hongqi LIU, Cameron PENG, Wei A. XIONG, Wei XIONG
The success of behavioral economics has led to a new challenge—many biases offering observationally similar predictions for a targeted financial anomaly. To tame this bias zoo, we combine subjective survey responses with observational data to propose a new approach, one that is robust to question-...
Keywords: excessive trading, survey, gambling preference, overconfidence
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2021

Taking Sides on Return Predictability

R. David MCLEAN, Jeffrey PONTIFF, Christopher REILLY
We study how 9 different market participants trade with respect to 130 different stock return anomalies and how each participant’s trades predict returns. Retail investors trade against anomalies, while firms’ and short sellers’ trades agree with anomalies. Institutional portfolios are weighte...
Keywords: Trading, return predictability, retail investors, institutions.
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2016

Systemic Default and Return Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets

Jack BAO, Kewei HOU, Shaojun ZHANG
We construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. Systemic default spikes during recessions, is correlated with macroeconomic indicators, and predic...
Keywords: systemic risk, Joint default, Predictability, Stock Returns, Bond returns
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AMPF Papers

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Commissioned Paper

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May 2017

Systematic Managed Floating

Jeffrey FRANKEL
A majority of countries neither freely float their currencies nor firmly peg. But most of the remainder in practice also don’t obey such well-defined intermediate exchange rate regimes as target zones. This paper proposes to define an intermediate regime, to be called “systematic managed floatin...
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