Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2018

Roads and Loans

Sumit AGARWAL, Abhiroop MUKHERJEE, S. Lakshmi NAARAAYANAN
Does financing respond to changes in productive opportunities, even for the world's poor? We answer this question by examining the response of private bank financing to a rural infrastructure program in India, which brought road access to unconnected villages. The program prioritized roads for villa...
Keywords: Finance and growth, Infrastructure development and finance, Rural lending
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Webinar Series

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Capital Market Development: China and Asia

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Jul 2022

Road to Stock Market Participation

Sumit AGARWAL, Pulak GHOSH, Meghana AYYAGARI, Yuxi CHENG
We study the impact of a national road construction program that brought access to previously unconnected pincodes in India, on stock market participation. Using a unique dataset on the trading behavior of over 13 million individuals, we find that construction of new feeder roads to a pincode increa...
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2014

Risk Shifting and Excessive International Trade Volatility

Anuk SERECHETAPONGSE, Assaf RAZIN
The recent global crisis saw a sharp decline in output, but the accompanying decline in international trade volumes was twice as big. But, in the 1990s boom international trade volume increase much more than output levels. Why is international trade so volatile? The paper develops a parsimonious gen...
Keywords: Risk shifting, International trade, trade volatility, financial openness
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Risk Sharing in a Politically Divided Monetary Union

David PARSLEY, Helen POPPER
We examine business cycle divergence and risk-sharing channels within the United States as a whole and in U.S. ‘regions’ whose populations have voted consistently Democrat (Blue) or Republican (Red) in national elections. We find: (1) state busi-ness cycle divergence exceeds international diver...
Keywords: monetary union, consumption risk-sharing, economic and political di-vergence
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Rising Policy Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, David E. ALTIG, Jose Maria BARRERO, Brent MEYER, Nicholas PARKER
I review evidence of rising policy uncertainty in the U.S. and global economies, drawing heavily on newspaper-based measures. Examples from countries around the world illustrate the role of political and policy developments as drivers of fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the pro...
Keywords: Policy uncertainty, Trade Policy, Stock Market Volatility, Newspaper-Based Measures
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