Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2023

Long-term Earnings Forecasts, Managerial Distortion, and Stock Returns

Zhenghui NI, Allaudeen HAMEED, Massimo MASSA
We explain stock mispricing linked to long-term expectations of earnings growth in terms of managerial manipulation in high-growth conglomerates. Manipulation does not affect analysts’ forecasts of conglomerate earnings, which are more accurate relative to pseudo-conglomerates. The combined effect...
Keywords: overreaction, analyst forecasts, return predictability, earnings predictability, managerial manipulation, conglomerates
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Pandemic

Long Social Distancing

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Jose Maria BARRERO
More than ten percent of Americans with recent work experience say they will continue social distancing after the COVID-19 pandemic ends, and another 45 percent will do so in limited ways. We uncover this Long Social Distancing phenomenon in our monthly Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. ...
Keywords: Social distancing, infection worries, pandemic, labor force participation, potential output, college wage premium, self-assessed causal effects
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Local Currency Bond Returns, Foreign Investors and Portfolio Flows in Emerging Markets

Giorgio VALENTE, Jason WU, Inhwan SO
Foreign investors play a key role in EME sovereign bond markets, in part because their portfolio flows are sensitive to bond returns and are therefore pro-cyclical in nature. This note discusses the implications of the framework proposed by So et al. (2019) which incorporates the risk that arises fr...
Keywords: Bond excess returns, Portfolio flows, institutional investors, Conditional asset pricing
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Annual Conference

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Corporate Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2017

Local Crowding Out in China

Yi HUANG, Ugo PANIZZA, Marco PAGANO
In China, between 2006 and 2013, local public debt crowded out the investment of private firms by tightening their funding constraints while leaving state-owned firms' investment unaffected. We establish this result using a purpose-built data set for Chinese local public debt. Private firms invest l...
Keywords: Investment, local public debt, Crowding out, Credit Constraints, China
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Annual Conference

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Corporate Finance

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May 2019

Loan Syndication Structures and Price Collusion

Jian CAI, Frederik EIDAM, Anthony SAUNDERS, Sascha STEFFEN
How does the organizational form of loan syndicates evolve and what are the effects on price collusion? We develop a novel measure of distance in lending expertise among syndicate lenders, and relate this novel measure to the organizational form of loan syndicates and loan pricing. Studying the U.S....
Keywords: Syndicated loans, Loan syndication structure, Loan pricing, Price collusion
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