AMPF Papers

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Commissioned Paper

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May 2022

Has monetary policy cared too much about a poor measure of r*?

Ricardo REIS
Measures of the decline in r ∗ are (almost) exclusively based on a fall in government bond yields. Yet, measures of the return on private aggregate capital are roughly constant, or slightly increasing, in most advanced economies. This fact is robust across measures of the demand for capital, using...
Keywords: liquidity trap, zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy.
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Annual Conference

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Accounting

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May 2016

Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds

Zhi DA, Xing HUANG
When will a large group provide an accurate answer to a question involving quantity estimation? We empirically examine this question on a crowd-based corporate earnings forecast platform (Estimize.com). By tracking user activities, we monitor the amount of public information a user views before maki...
Keywords: Wisdom of Crowds, Herding, Naive Learning, Social Learning, Group Decision Making, Earnings Forecast
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

Hard to say goodbye to yesterday: war memories, patriotism, and individual investors’ investment preferences

Yupeng LIN, Bin KE, Weibiao XU, Hong TU
We examine whether memories of interstate wars that occurred long ago, transmitted across generations, affect the stock investment decisions of individuals who never experienced the wars themselves. Using the Second Sino-Japanese War over 1931-1945 as a setting, we find that war memories have a sign...
Keywords: Interstate war, stock investment, nonpecuniary preferences, intergenerational
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2018

Hacking Reverse Mortgages

Deborah LUCAS
Reverse mortgages allow retirees to access a portion of their home equity to meet spending needs while insuring that they can age in place. In the U.S., almost all reverse mortgages are in the form of a Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM)--a product designed and administered by the federal govern...
Keywords: Reverse mortgage, government credit programs
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2015

Guru Dreams and Competition: An Anatomy of the Economics of Blogs

Hong ZHANG, Yi DONG, Massimo MASSA
The rise of social media has encouraged guru dreams because of the low entry barrier and highly skewed distribution of public attention that characterize social media. The pursuit of guru status, however, may be achieved through information provision or cheap talk, and competition inherent to social...
Keywords: Blogs, Social media, Information provision, Competition
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