Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2014

Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates

Shang-Jin WEI, Nikhil PATEL, Zhi WANG
The real effective exchange rate (REER) is one of the most cited statistics in open-economy macroeconomics. We show that the models used to compute these numbers are not rich enough to allow for the rising importance of global value chains. Moreover, because different sectors within a country partic...
Keywords: Global value chains, REER
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2018

Global Risks in the Currency Market

George PANAYOTOV
Global risks allow theoretical models of the currency market to explain currency risk premia. Yet, there is no consensus in the empirical literature on which factors can represent global risks. We develop an asset pricing test for global risk factors that relies on the key assumption of a distinct U...
Keywords: Global risk factors, Currency market models, Currency carry trades
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2018

Global Market Inefficiencies

Söhnke M. BARTRAM, Mark GRINBLATT
Using point-in-time accounting data, we estimate monthly fair values of 25,000+ stocks from 36 countries. A trading strategy based on deviations from fair value earns significant risk-adjusted returns (“alpha”) in most regions, especially Asia-Pacific, that are unrelated to known anomalies. The ...
Keywords: International finance, valuation, Asset Pricing, market efficiency, Fundamental analysis, Point-in-time, Transaction costs, Principal components, Instrumented principal components analysis
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2024

Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar

Martin BODENSTEIN, Pablo Cuba BORDA, Nils GORNEMANN, Ignacio PRESNO, Andrea PRESTIPINO, Andrea RAFFO, Albert QUERALTO
We develop a two-country macroeconomic model that we fit to a set of aggregate prices and quantities for the U.S. and the rest of the world. In addition to a standard array of shocks, the model includes time variation in agents’ preference for safe bonds. We allow for a component of this time vari...
Keywords: Econometrics and economic theory, International economics, Macroeconomic activity
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2019

Global Currency Hedging with Common Risk Factors

Steven J. RIDDIOUGH, Wei OPIE
We develop a novel method to dynamically hedge foreign exchange exposure in international equity and bond portfolios. The method exploits the time-series predictability of currency returns, which we show emerges from exploiting a forecastable component in global factor returns. The hedging strategy ...
Keywords: global currency hedging, currency risk factors, currency returns, international portfolio diversification, mean-variance optimization
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