Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2023

Fiscal Deficits and Inflation Risks: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Regimes

Ryan BANERJEE, Valerie BOCTOR, Aaron MEHROTRA, Fabrizio ZAMPOLLI
Using data from a panel of advanced economies over four decades, we show that the inflationary effect of fiscal deficits crucially depends on the prevailing fiscal-monetary policy regime. Under fiscal dominance, defined as a regime in which the government does not adjust the primary balance to stabi...
Keywords: Fiscal deficit, inflation, fiscal policy regime, monetary policy regime, monetary policy independence
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2016

Fiscal Conditions and Long-term Interest Rates

Koji NAKAMURA, Tomoyuki YAGI
We conduct a quantitative analysis of the effects of fiscal conditions and other factors on nominal long-term interest rates based on panel data of 23 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for the period from 1980 to 2013. In addition to labor productivit...
Keywords: Long-term interest rate, Fiscal balance, Debt outstanding, Current account, National burden ratio, Fiscal reconstruction, monetary policy
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2025

Firm-to-Firm Referrals

Jing CAI, Wei LIN, Adam SZEIDL
We make randomized firm-to-firm referrals between 700 supplier and client firms in the industry producing the Chinese writing brush. Subsidized referrals lead to subsequent transactions and a partial crowding out of prior partners; information-only referrals have no effect. The referrals increase re...
Keywords: Supplier-client Matching, Business Stealing, Searching Frictions, Pessimistic Beliefs
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

Steven J. DAVIS, Stephen HANSEN, Cristhian SEMINARIO-AMEZ
Firm-level stock returns differ enormously in reaction to COVID-19 news. We characterize these reactions using the Risk Factors discussions in pre-pandemic 10-K filings and two text-analytic approaches: expert-curated dictionaries and supervised machine learning (ML). Bad COVID-19 news lowers return...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Firm-level risk exposures, Stock Returns
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Annual Conference

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Tech, Digital Markets and AI

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May 2025

Firm-Level Input Price Changes and Their Effects: A Deep Learning Approach

Sudheer CHAVA, Wendi DU, Indrajit MITRA, Andrea LU, Agam SHAH
We develop firm-level measures of input and output price changes based on textual analysis of earnings calls. Our measures establish five facts: (1) The median firm experiences an increase (decrease) in input prices every 7 (30) months. (2) Input price changes are driven by aggregate and firm specif...
Keywords: Input price changes, pass through, Earnings conference calls, deep learning, stock returns
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