Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2021

We provide a quantitative evaluation of the welfare impacts of the US-China trade conflict starting in 2018. We first document that the first wave of tariffs on China imposed by the Trump administration targeted China’s Industrial Policy rather than Chinese imports. They are concentrated on high t...
Keywords: Trade Policy, Industrial Policy, Economies of Scale, Substitutability in Input-Output Networks.
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2022

Using credit registry data from China, this paper examines the implications of antidumping trade shocks on exporting country’s bank loan market. We find that a onestandard-deviation trade shock leads to a 7.2% increase in the likelihood of default in relative terms. Banks respond to the shock by r...
Keywords: Antidumping, Bank Lending, China, Spillover
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Trade tensions between China and US have played an important role in swinging global stock markets but effects are difficult to quantify. We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative to...
Keywords: Stock Returns, trade, sentiment, big data, neural network, machine learning
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2024

We develop a model of endogenous production networks in which the horizontal proximity between a firm’s technology and the technology of its suppliers affects the input cost. Firms choose their technology balancing the benefit of moving in the technological space toward suppliers with the cost of ...
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2017

We provide an easy way to use recent, publicly available U.S. equity transactions data to identify retail purchases and sales. Based on retail order imbalances, we find that retail investors are informed at horizons up to 12 weeks. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform sto...
Keywords: retail investors, price improvement, return predictability
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