Webinar Series

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about business growth, forecaster disagreement about ...
Keywords: forward-looking uncertainty measures, volatility, COVID-19, Coronavirus
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Commentaries

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, 2020, Pandemic

On January 23, 2020, the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan (in Hubei Province). In subsequent days, similar measures were taken in other cities in Hubei and throughout China. This chapter documents several facts of the Chinese economy since the lockdown. The main findings are summariz...
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Japan, an isolated, backward country in the 1860s, industrialized rapidly to become a major industrial power by the 1930s. South Korea, among the world’s poorest countries in the 1960s, joined the ranks of First World economies in little over a single generation. China now seems poised to follow a...
Keywords: Japan, South Korea, China, Big Push, Industrialization, business groups, Developmental State
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Annual Conference

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Accounting, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

We examine the effect of sovereign credit rating downgrades on firms’ earnings management. Using the exogenous variation in credit ratings caused by sovereign rating downgrades from 61 countries, we show that firms reduce discretionary accruals after sovereign downgrades and are likely to experien...
Keywords: Sovereign downgrade, Ceiling rule, Credit rating, Earnings Management, Big bath accounting
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

The Great Recession and its aftermath saw the worst relative performance of young firms in at least 35 years. More broadly, as we show, young-firm activity shares move strongly with local economic conditions and local house price growth. In this light, we assess the effects of housing prices and cre...
Keywords: Young firms, business dynamism, housing market boom and bust, credit supply shifts, Great Recession, employment fluctuations
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