Annual Conference

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Labour Economics

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May 2024

Using China's one-child policy (OCP) as a quasi-natural experiment, we demonstrate that differential fertility between socioeconomic groups exacerbates intergenerational income inequality. Rural or poorer families, who are less constrained by the OCP than urban or richer ones, tend to have more chil...
Keywords: Child quantity–quality trade-off, Differential fertility, Intergenerational transmission of inequality, One-child policy
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We establish the validity of an augmented Balassa-Samuelson theory in a panel of real exchange rate levels between 18 OECD countries accounting for nearly two-thirds of the world GDP between 1970 and 2012 using a unique dataset of levels of total factor productivity (TFP) by sector. Real exchange ra...
Keywords: Real exchange rate, OECD countries, Structural determinants
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2015

We document a novel channel through which coordinated trading exerts externalities on financial markets. We study the impact of a financial advisory firm that recommends frequent reallocations between equity and bond funds to Chilean pension investors. The recommendations generate large and coordina...
Keywords: Coordinated Noise Trading, Pension Funds, Price Pressure
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2018

We investigate the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects arising from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical framework, we model overleveraging and demonstrate how a highly leveraged banking system can lead to unstable dynamics and downward spi...
Keywords: Macro-Financial Linkages, Leverage, credit supply
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We use the futures commission merchants (FCMs) reports released by CFTC to construct a frequent (monthly) and timely (one-month delay) market-level leverage measure, based on the aggregate margin of market participants. The derivative-market leverage negatively (positively) predicts returns of risky...
Keywords: Derivative-Market Leverage, Risk Premia, Return Predictability, Risk Aversion
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