Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Lucia FOSTER, Brian LUCKING, Scott OHLMACHER, Itay SAPORTA-EKSTEN
The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS) utilized innovative methodology to collect five-point forecast distributions over own future shipments, employment, and capital and materials expenditures for 35,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. First and second moments o...
Keywords: Subjective Forecast Distributions, business-level uncertainty, forecast quality
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Business Groups and Employment

Mara FACCIO, William OBRIEN
Using a newly assembled 50 country firm-level database spanning 19 years, we document that business group affiliated firms display substantially less pronounced fluctuations in employment than unaffiliated firms in response to economic shocks. The results are robust to a variety of tests designed to...
Keywords: business groups, Employment, Business Cycles
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Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia

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May 2019

Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective

Kjetil STORESLETTEN, Fabrizio ZILIBOTTI, Bo ZHAO
We document that the nature of business cycles evolves over the process of development and structural change. In countries with large declining agricultural sectors, aggregate employment is uncorrelated with GDP. During booms, employment in agriculture declines while labor productivity increases in ...
Keywords: Business cycle, structural change, neoclassical
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Bureaucratic Bean Counting and Patent Subsidies: A Welfare Evaluation of China's Pro-innovation Program

Shang-Jin WEI, Xiaobo ZHANG, Ge YIN, Jianhuan XU
This paper quantifies the welfare effect of the patent subsidy policy (the InnoCom program) in China. The policy encourages firms to hold more patents, but disregard the quality of patents. We provide evidence that the subsidy decreases the value of patents either through declining the quality of ne...
Keywords: Welfare effect, patent subsidy, positive demand shock, China
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2016

Bribes and Firm Value

Stefan ZEUME
I exploit the passage of the U.K. Bribery Act 2010 as a shock to U.K. firms’ cost of doing business. Around the Act’s passage, U.K. firms operating in high-corruption countries experience a drop in firm value, while their non-U.K. competitors in these countries encounter an increase. U.K. firms ...
Keywords: valuation, Corruption, regulation, Corporate governance
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