Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia

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May 2019

Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective

Kjetil STORESLETTEN, Fabrizio ZILIBOTTI, Bo ZHAO
We document that the nature of business cycles evolves over the process of development and structural change. In countries with large declining agricultural sectors, aggregate employment is uncorrelated with GDP. During booms, employment in agriculture declines while labor productivity increases in ...
Keywords: Business cycle, structural change, neoclassical
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Bureaucratic Bean Counting and Patent Subsidies: A Welfare Evaluation of China's Pro-innovation Program

Shang-Jin WEI, Xiaobo ZHANG, Ge YIN, Jianhuan XU
This paper quantifies the welfare effect of the patent subsidy policy (the InnoCom program) in China. The policy encourages firms to hold more patents, but disregard the quality of patents. We provide evidence that the subsidy decreases the value of patents either through declining the quality of ne...
Keywords: Welfare effect, patent subsidy, positive demand shock, China
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2016

Bribes and Firm Value

Stefan ZEUME
I exploit the passage of the U.K. Bribery Act 2010 as a shock to U.K. firms’ cost of doing business. Around the Act’s passage, U.K. firms operating in high-corruption countries experience a drop in firm value, while their non-U.K. competitors in these countries encounter an increase. U.K. firms ...
Keywords: valuation, Corruption, regulation, Corporate governance
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Annual Conference

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Accounting

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May 2024

Breaking the Language Barriers Machine Translation Technology and Analysts’ Forecasts for Multinational Firms

Bingxu FANG, Pengkai LIN
We study the impact of machine translation technology on analysts’ forecasts for multinational firms. Exploiting the staggered rollout of Google Translate’s support to translate foreign languages into English, we find that U.S. analysts improve their forecast accuracy for firms with substantial ...
Keywords: Technology, Sell-Side Analysts, Machine Translation, Labor and Finance, Complementarity
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2025

Bottom-Up Institutional Change and Growth in China

Heng CHEN, Bingjing LI, Xiaodong ZHU
This paper investigates the role of bottom-up reforms in driving China’s economic growth. Leveraging granular documentation from county-level gazetteers, we identify local reform events from 1976 to 2005, capturing de facto policy innovations and their diffusion. Our findings show that bottom-up r...
Keywords: Bottom-up institutional change, TFP growth, policy diffusion, machine learning
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