Commentaries

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, 2020, Pandemic

A First Look at China’s Consumption after Coronavirus

Wenlan QIAN
With countries engaging in distancing and mobility-restriction measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, a central policy debate lies in the tradeoff between stringent public health interventions and the severe economic ramifications that come with those interventions…...
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2016

A Dynamic Model of Characteristic-Based Return Predictability

Sheridan TITMAN, Aydogan ALTI
We present a dynamic model that links characteristic-based return predictability to systematic factors that determine the evolution of firm fundamentals. In the model, an economy-wide disruption process reallocates profits from existing businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of syste...
Keywords: characteristic-based return predictability, systematic risk, mispricing
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Specialty Conference

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Specialty Conference

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Jan 2017

A DSGE Model to Assess the Post Crisis Regulation of Universal Banks

Olivier de BANDT, Mohammed CHAHAD
The paper assesses the overall consistency and impact on both the financial sector and the real economy, of the numerous banking regulations that have been introduced in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. For this purpose, we develop, within a multi-period asset framework, a large scale DS...
Keywords: Basel III, Solvency ratio, Liquidity ratios, Multi-period assets, Firms' heterogeneity
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

A Comprehensive GIS Database for China’s Surface Transport Network with Implications for Transport and Socioeconomics Research

Steven J. DAVIS, Meijun QIAN, Wen ZENG
We build a granular GIS database that covers China’s national highways, modern motorways, traditional railways, high-speed railways, and waterways at an annual frequency from 1993 to 2020. Overall network length more than tripled after 1993, with half the increase accounted for by modern motorways...
Keywords: Transport network, GIS database, China, Infrastructure investments, Transport access, Socioeconomic development
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

A Century of Market Reversals--Resurrecting Volatility

Vincent BOGOUSSLAVSKY, Blake LEBARON, Jeffrey PONTIFF
Inventory models posit that return autocorrelation is affected by collateral, volume, and expected volatility. We show that daily market autocorrelations are lower on negative return days, consistent with collateral concerns. Unlike previous literature, we document a strong role of volatility on aut...
Keywords: Market Liquidity, Volatility, Serial Correlation, Collateral, Liquidity Risk
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