Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2022

Birth order and fund manager’s trading behavior: Role of sibling rivalry

Vikas AGARWAL, Alexander COCHARDT, Stephan HELLER, Vitaly ORLOV
This paper investigates the role of birth order on managerial behavior using rich data on familial background of US mutual fund managers. We find that managers who are born later in the sibling hierarchy take on more investment risks relative to first-born managers. Later-born managers deviate more ...
Keywords: birth order, mutual fund manager, fund risk, parental resources, evolutionary psychology, sibling rivalry
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

Biased Expectations and Credit Risk in the Municipal Bond Market

Tarun CHORDIA, Jinoug JEUNG, Abinash PATI
We show that the pricing of credit risk in the municipal bond market depends on the salience of its underlying cash-flow shocks. We find that public mass shootings raise borrowing costs of issuers in affected counties by an average of 6 (5.2) basis points in the secondary (primary) market. This incr...
Keywords: Biased Beliefs, Public Mass Shootings, Municipal Debt, Salience
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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2025

Beyond the Bubble: Structural Drivers of Tokyo’s High Housing Prices

Chihiro SHIMIZU
This study develops and empirically tests a unified equilibrium model of the housing market. The model integrates user-cost theory, expectation formation, and urban growth dynamics. Using monthly data for the Tokyo metropolitan area from 1986 to 2025, the model jointly estimates housing prices, rent...
Keywords: Housing prices, User cost, Price-to-rent ratio, Urban redevelopment, Cointegration (Johansen test), VECM, Counterfactual simulation, Structural appreciation, Expectations, Tokyo housing market
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2025

Beyond the Aggregate: Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Allocation

Sui-Jade HO, Ozer KARAGEDIKLI, Samantha ONG
How does monetary policy affect mortgage allocation across income groups? Using comprehensive credit registry data from Malaysia (2017-2023), we examine the distributional effects of monetary policy shocks on new mortgage demand, probability of approvals, value of new mortgage originations, maturity...
Keywords: Monetary policy, credit allocation, household finance, mortgage market, Malaysia
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Between Lives and Economy: Optimal COVID-19 Containment Policy in Open Economies

Wen-Tai HSU, Hsuan-Chih (Luke) LIN, Han YANG
This paper studies optimal containment policy for combating a pandemic in an open- economy context. It does so via quantitative analyses using a model that incorporates a standard epidemiological compartmental model in a multi-country, multi-sector Ricardian model of international trade with full-fl...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, welfare analysis, containment policy, optimal policy, open economy, trade, input-output linkages
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