Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2018

A Survey-based Shadow Rate and Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects

Yoichi UENO, Hibiki ICHIUE
Many studies estimate a shadow interest rate, which can be negative when the short-term rate is at the effective lower bound, and use it as the monetary policy indicator. This study proposes a novel method to estimate the shadow rate using survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables and allowing the...
Keywords: monetary policy, Effective Lower Bound, zero lower bound, Shadow Rate, Survey Forecasts
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Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia

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May 2017

A Structural Estimation of the Return to Infrastructure Investment in China

Guiying Laura WU, Zhifeng WANG, Qu FENG
This paper develops a model of endogenous productivity to examine the impact of public infrastructure investment on output. It matches firm-level production data with province-level infrastructure data to address a set of wellknown identification issues in the literature, and employs a structural es...
Keywords: Public Infrastructure Investment, Productivity, Rate of Return, Resource Reallocation
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2017

A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model

Ji ZHANG, Jing Cynthia WU
We propose a tractable and coherent framework that captures both conventional and unconventional monetary policies with the shadow fed funds rate. Empirically, we document the shadow rate’s resemblance to an overall financial conditions index, various private interest rates, the Fed’s balance sh...
Keywords: Shadow Rate, New Keynesian model, unconventional monetary policy, zero lower bound, QE, lending facilities
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

A Second-best Argument for Low Optimal Tariffs

Lorenzo CALIENDO, Robert C. FEENSTRA, John ROMALIS, Alan M. TAYLOR
We derive a new formula for the optimal uniform tariff in a small-country, heterogeneous-firm model with roundabout production and a nontraded good. Tariffs are applied on imported intermediate inputs. First-best policy requires that markups on domestic intermediate inputs are offset by subsidie...
Keywords: Trade Policy, monopolistic competition, gains from trade, input-output linkages
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AMPF Papers

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Commissioned Paper

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Jun 2020

A Safe-Asset Perspective for an Integrated Policy Framework

Markus K. BRUNNERMEIER, Yuliy SANNIKOV, Sebastian MERKEL
Borrowing from Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2016a, 2019) this policy paper sketches a policy framework for emerging market economies by mapping out the roles and interactions of monetary policy, macroprudential policies, foreign exchange interventions, and capital controls. Safe assets are central in ...
Keywords: Safe asset, bubbles, international capital flows, capital controls, monetary policy, macroprudential
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