Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Trade sentiment and the stock market: New evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media

Leonardo GAMBACORTA, Dora XIA, Chao HE, Marlene AMSTAD
Trade tensions between China and US have played an important role in swinging global stock markets but effects are difficult to quantify. We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative to...
Keywords: Stock Returns, trade, sentiment, big data, neural network, machine learning
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Webinar Series

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

The Role of Corporate Culture in Bad Times: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Kai LI, Xing LIU, Feng MAI, Tengfei ZHANG
After fitting a topic model to 40,927 COVID-19-related paragraphs in 3,581 earnings calls over the period January 22 to April 30, 2020, we obtain firm-level measures of exposure and response related to COVID-19 for 2,894 U.S. firms. We show that despite the large negative impact of COVID-19 on their...
Keywords: corporate culture, COVID-19, Pandemic, demand, supply chain, employees, community, digital transformation, new product development, Human capital, machine learning, topic modeling, correlated topic model
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

A Second-best Argument for Low Optimal Tariffs

Lorenzo CALIENDO, Robert C. FEENSTRA, John ROMALIS, Alan M. TAYLOR
We derive a new formula for the optimal uniform tariff in a small-country, heterogeneous-firm model with roundabout production and a nontraded good. Tariffs are applied on imported intermediate inputs. First-best policy requires that markups on domestic intermediate inputs are offset by subsidie...
Keywords: Trade Policy, monopolistic competition, gains from trade, input-output linkages
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Lucia FOSTER, Brian LUCKING, Scott OHLMACHER, Itay SAPORTA-EKSTEN
The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS) utilized innovative methodology to collect five-point forecast distributions over own future shipments, employment, and capital and materials expenditures for 35,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. First and second moments o...
Keywords: Subjective Forecast Distributions, business-level uncertainty, forecast quality
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

COVID-19 Shifted Patent Applications toward Technologies that Support Working from Home

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Yulia ZHESTKOVA
We examine the text content of U.S. patent applications, identifying those that advance technologies in support of video conferencing, telecommuting, remote interactivity, and working from home (collectively, WFH). The share of new patent applications that advance WFH technologies more than doubles ...
Keywords: directed technical change, patents, COVID-19, Coronavirus, working from home, remote interactivity, text analysis
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