We find large overnight returns with no abnormal variance before nonfarm payrolls, ISM, and GDP announcements, similar to the pre-FOMC returns. To explain this common pattern, we propose a two-risk model with the uncertainty about the magnitude of the impending news' market impact as an additional r...
Keywords:
Pre-Announcement Drift, Macroeconomic Announcements, FOMC, Heightened Uncertainty, VIX