Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Rising Policy Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, David E. ALTIG, Jose Maria BARRERO, Brent MEYER, Nicholas PARKER
I review evidence of rising policy uncertainty in the U.S. and global economies, drawing heavily on newspaper-based measures. Examples from countries around the world illustrate the role of political and policy developments as drivers of fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the pro...
Keywords: Policy uncertainty, Trade Policy, Stock Market Volatility, Newspaper-Based Measures
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

Real Estate Booms and Misallocation of Capital in China

Laura Xiaolei LIU, Ting CHEN, Wei XIONG, Li-An ZHOU
This paper analyzes how real estate shocks affect corporate investment in China. In addition to the widely documented collateral channel, we also uncover two other channels: the speculation channel—rapidly rising commercial land prices induce manufacturing and service firms to buy more commercial ...
Keywords: Land prices, Collateral Channel, Speculation Channel, Crowding Out Channel, Misallocation of Capital
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

Super Debt Cities

Mathias HOFFMANN, Yi HUANG, Ye ZHANG
In response to the global financial crisis, the Chinese government launched a gigantic fiscal stimulus and the big four government-owned banks considerably expanded their lending. We show that this lending boom contributed significantly to the house-price boom across China since 2009. To identify th...
Keywords: lending boom, house-price boom, China, financial crisis
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

Tax Evasion, Capital Gains Taxes, and the Housing Market

Jing WU, Sumit AGARWAL, Keyang LI, Qin YU, Jubo YAN
In this paper, we exploit a policy shock that differentially increased capital gains taxes for some residential property sellers and document tax evasion in the residential resale market in China. Having precise information of the transaction price and the reported price to the tax authority, we sho...
Keywords: Tax evasion, capital gains tax, housing market, housing policy
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics

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May 2019

FinTech Borrowers: Lax-Screening or Cream-Skimming?

Vincent YAO, Marco Di MAGGIO
Personal credit is the fastest-growing segments of the consumer credit market, mainly driven by fintech lenders' staggering expansion. We show that fintech lenders acquire market share by first lending to higher-risk borrowers and then to safer borrowers, and mainly rely on hard information to make ...
Keywords: FinTech, Credit History, Self-Control, Present-Bias
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