ABFER Welcome Dinner
Keynote Speech by Professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
THE VALUATION OF PRIVATE ASSETS: NEW METHODS
Risks in financial markets are migrating from public to private markets, a development that calls for new measurement and modeling tools. The talk will focus on a new methodology to value commercial real estate (CRE) assets, which goes beyond traditional hedonic models. Using a detailed dataset of approximately 370,000 CRE transactions from 2001-2023, and a machine learning algorithm, the research finds that investor characteristics significantly impact property valuation. We also model the listing, meeting, and transaction probabilities, with meeting probability depending on buyer size and portfolio similarity. Estimation of the meeting model is made possible with the aid of techniques used in the estimation of LLMs. A potential price distribution helps predict sales prices and perform counterfactual analyses; for example, Manhattan office valuations would have been 7% lower without the foreign buyer influx in 2013-2023.
2025
Conrad Singapore Orchard, 1 Cuscaden Rd, Singapore 249715
Speakers
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Professor Stijn VAN NIEUWERBURGH
Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate and Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University and Senior Fellow, ABFER
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh is the Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate and Professor of Finance at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, which he joined in July 2018 after 15 years at New York University’s Stern School of Business. He earned his PhD in Economics (2003), MSc in Financial Mathematics (2001), and MA in Economics (2001) from Stanford University, and a B.A. in Economics from the University of Ghent, Belgium (1998).
His research lies in the intersection of real estate, asset pricing, and macroeconomics. He studies the impact of remote work on real estate valuations, affordable housing policies, mortgage market design, the impact of foreign buyers on the housing market, property price dynamics, and mortgage choice. Another recent strand of his research focuses on government debt and fiscal policy. His has published over 50 articles in peer-reviewed journals and his work is frequently covered in the media, including on 60 Minutes, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and the Financial Times.
In 2016, Van Nieuwerburgh was awarded the 15th Edition of the Bernácer Prize for his research on the transmission of shocks in the housing market on the macro-economy and the prices of financial assets. In 2020, he won the TIAA Paul Samuelson Award for research on lifelong financial security for his work on combining life and health insurance. And in 2024, he was awarded the inaugural Practice Prize from Columbia Business School for his work and advocacy on post-pandemic office markets and the urban doom loop.
Professor Van Nieuwerburgh served as the President of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in 2022. He served on the board of the American Finance Association from 2022 until 2025. He will serve as the President of the European Finance Association in 2027. He is a Faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, at the Center for European Policy Research, and at the Asian Bureau for Finance and Economics Research. He was an Editor at the Review of Financial Studies from 2016 until 2020. Outside academia, he serves on the board of directors of Moody’s Investor Services, Anchor Healthcare Properties, and the Belgian American Educational Foundation..
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Session Format
40 minutes of keynote speech and 20 minutes for Q&A.
Supported by
