Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports

Andrew K. ROSE
A country's exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries.  I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey which asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance of ...
Keywords: empirical, panel, data, gravity, Gallup, leadership, approval, positive, international
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

The Macroeconomy After Tariffs

Andrew K. ROSE, Davide FURCERI, Swarnali A. HANNAN, Jonathan D. OSTRY
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs.  We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963‐2014.  We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines...
Keywords: protection, output, productivity, unemployment, inequality, exchange rate, trade balance
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Political Borders and Bank Lending in Post-Crisis America

Andrew K. ROSE, Matthieu CHAVAZ
We study political influences on private banks receiving government funds.  Using spatial discontinuities associated with congressional district borders, we show that recipient banks of the 2008 TARP program increased mortgage and small business lending by 23-60% more in census tracts located just ...
Keywords: empirical, data, panel, fixed, effect, county, district, congress, policy, mortgage
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Real Estate Shocks and Financial Advisor Misconduct

Stephen G. DIMMOCK, William C. GERKEN, Tyson D. VAN ALFEN
We test whether household wealth shocks affect professional misconduct by financial advisors. We use a panel of advisors’ home addresses and examine within-advisor variation relative to other advisors who work at the same firm and live in the same ZIP code. We show that advisors increase miscon...
Keywords: Financial advisors, Brokers, Financial misconduct, Fraud, Household finance, Real estate, bankruptcy
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field

Stephen G. DIMMOCK, Roy KOUWENBERG, Olivia S. MITCHELL, Kim PEIJNENBURG
We test the relation between probability weighting and household portfolio choice in a representative household survey, using custom-designed incentivized lotteries. On average, people display Inverse-S shaped probability weighting, overweighting the small probabilities of tail events. As theory pre...
Keywords: Household Finance, portfolio underdiversification, probability weighting, rank dependent utility, cumulative prospect theory, salience theory, household portfolio puzzles, stock market participation
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