Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2023

Geographic Spillovers and Firm Exports: Evidence from China

Lin TIAN, Yue YU
This paper examines the importance of domestic economic geography for a country’s export performance. We first develop a simple model in which the geographic integration of exporters reduces international trade frictions. We test the model’s predictions by leveraging the expansion of China’s h...
Keywords: Agglomeration, Knowledge Diffusion, Informal Trade Barriers, China’s Highspeed Rail
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2023

Demonetization and Firm Exports

Ritam CHAUREY, Ryan KIM, Pravin KRISHNA
On November 8, 2016, the Government of India announced the “demonetization” of large currency bills that rendered 86 percent of currency in circulation illegal tender. Using unique, high-frequency customs transaction data matched with balance sheet information of exporting firms and both event-s...
Keywords: demonetization, exports, customs-transactions data, monetary policy
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2023

Labor Market Implications of Taiwan’s Accession to the WTO: A Dynamic Quantitative Analysis

Pao-Li CHANG, Yi-Fan CHEN, Wen-Tai HSU, Xin YI
This paper studies the effects of Taiwan’s accession to the WTO in 2002 on the labor market dynamics in Taiwan during 1995–2020. Our dynamic quantitative framework builds on that of Caliendo, Dvorkin and Parro (2019) but allows for differently skilled labor inputs (low, middle, high) and sector-...
Keywords: WTO, Dynamic Quantitative Analysis, Labor Market Dynamics, Welfare effects, Mobility Frictions, Skill Upgrade
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2023

The Economics of Mutual Fund Marketing

Wenxi JIANG, Jane CHEN, Mindy Xiaolan ZHANG
We uncover a significant relationship between the persistence of marketing employment strategy and fund performance in the U.S. mutual fund industry. Using regulatory filings, we show a large heterogeneity in fund companies’ marketing employment share, which refers to the fraction of employees dev...
Keywords: Marketing Employment Share, Persistence Marketing, Bayesian Persuasion, Costly Learning
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2023

Inflation Forecasting from Cross-Sectional Stocks

Claire Yurong HONG, Jun PAN, Shiwen TIAN
This paper examines the inflation forecastability of cross-sectional stocks. To differentiate the cross-sectional inflation exposures, we make the important observation that cross-sectional stock returns exhibit persistent sensitivity to headline inflation shocks during the calendar month of CPI, an...
Keywords: inflation, individual stock returns, core-CPI, announcements
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