Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2018

The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown

Davin CHOR, Filipe CAMPANTE, Bingjing LI
We study how adverse economic shocks influence political outcomes in authoritarian regimes in strong states, by examining the 2013-2015 export slowdown in China. We exploit detailed customs data and the variation they reveal about Chinese prefectures’ underlying exposure to the global trade slowdo...
Keywords: Political economy, export slowdown, economic shocks
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Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2018

Growing Pains in Chinese Social Security System

Hanming FANG, Jingyi ZHANG
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2018

TechFin at Ant Financial: Credit Market Completion and its Growth Effect

Yi HUANG, Harald HAU, Hongzhe SHAN, Zixia SHENG
Ant Financial provides automated credit lines to more than a million firms trading on Alibaba’s Taobao e-commerce platform. Monthly credit records show how TechFin mitigates local credit supply frictions in China’s segmented credit market and extends the “frontier” of credit availability to ...
Keywords: TechFin, Credit Constraints, micro credit, Entrepreneurship
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Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia

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May 2016

To Stay or to Migrate? Rural-urban Migration and the One-Child Policy in China

Pei-Ju LIAO, Yin-Chi WANG, Wang PING, Chong Kee YIP
With a dynamic macroeconomic model built to tailor the institutions of China, this paper studies how fertility control and migration policies shaped the rural-urban migration pattern and the economic development of China. Different from the reduced-form approach adopted by most of the existing liter...
Keywords: Rural-Urban Migration, Fertility, urbanization, development
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2015

The Economics of Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

Pierre-Olivier GOURINCHAS, Philippe MARTIN
Despite a formal 'no-bailout clause', we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to 43% (Greece) of 2011 output during the recent Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and un...
Keywords: sovereign debt, Bailouts, Eurozone Crisis
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