Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We outline two divergent exit strategies of the U.S. from the post COVID-19 debt-overhang, and analyze their implications on Emerging Markets and global stability. The first strategy is the U.S. aiming at returning to the 2019, pre-COVID mode of loose fiscal policy and accommodating monetary policy....
Keywords: COVID-19, interest rate, public debt, growth rate
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We provide evidence consistent with a “credit-line drawdown channel” to explain the large and persistent crash of bank stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stock prices of banks with large ex-ante exposures to undrawn credit lines and large ex-post gross drawdowns declined more, especially...
Keywords: Credit lines, liquidity risk, bank capital, loan supply, stress tests, Pandemic
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We estimate a workhorse DSGE model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint. First, we propose a new specification of the occasionally binding constraint, where the transition between the unconstrained and constrained states is a stochastic function of the leverage level and the constraint ...
Keywords: financial crises, Business Cycles, Endogenous Regime-Switching, Bayesian Estima- tion, Occasionally Binding Constraints, Mexico.
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

For most of the post WWII period, until recently, trade protectionism followed a downward trend, and was formulated in multilateral or bilateral agreements between countries. Recently however, there hasbeen a sharp shift towards unilateral, discretionary trade policy focused on short term macroecono...
Keywords: Protectionism, currency wars, Trade Wars
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2021

We study non-performing loan (NPL) resolution using proprietary data on NPL transactions in China. Rather than representing orderly NPL resolution, the transactions appear to reflect banks concealing non-performing assets from regulators as (i) transaction prices do not reflect underlying credit ris...
Keywords: Financial regulation, regulatory arbitrage, systemic risk, Financial Distress
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