Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

Steven J. DAVIS, Dingqian LIU, Xuguang Simon SHENG
Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid February to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30 percent from 17 February to 12 March, before mobility declined. Over the next 11 days, stocks fell another 10 percentage points as mobility dropped 40 ...
Keywords: stock prices, lockdown policies, market shutdowns, Coronavirus, COVID-19, workplace mobility, China
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

Steven J. DAVIS, Stephen HANSEN, Cristhian SEMINARIO-AMEZ
Firm-level stock returns differ enormously in reaction to COVID-19 news. We characterize these reactions using the Risk Factors discussions in pre-pandemic 10-K filings and two text-analytic approaches: expert-curated dictionaries and supervised machine learning (ML). Bad COVID-19 news lowers return...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Firm-level risk exposures, Stock Returns
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Scott R. BAKER, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Aniket BAKSY, Jonathan RODDEN
We examine patterns of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) around national elections in 23 countries. Uncertainty shows a clear tendency to rise in the months leading up to elections. Average EPU values are 13% higher in the month of and the month prior to an election than in other months of the same ...
Keywords: uncertainty, Policy uncertainty, elections, polarization
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

60 million fewer commuting hours per day: How Americans use time saved by working from home

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Jose Maria BARRERO
Drawing on original surveys of our own design, we estimate that the pandemic-induced shift to working from home lowers commuting time among Americans by more than 60 million hours per work day. Cumulative time savings over the past seven months exceed 9 billion hours. Our survey data also say that A...
Keywords: Covid-10, Pandemic, Work from home
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Between Lives and Economy: Optimal COVID-19 Containment Policy in Open Economies

Wen-Tai HSU, Hsuan-Chih (Luke) LIN, Han YANG
This paper studies optimal containment policy for combating a pandemic in an open- economy context. It does so via quantitative analyses using a model that incorporates a standard epidemiological compartmental model in a multi-country, multi-sector Ricardian model of international trade with full-fl...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, welfare analysis, containment policy, optimal policy, open economy, trade, input-output linkages
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