Commentaries

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2020, Pandemic

Why China Needs to Push for a Global Debt Standstill

Chang-Tai HSIEH
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Commentaries

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2020, Pandemic

Saving Lives versus Saving Livelihoods: Can Big Data Technology Solve the Pandemic Dilemma?

Kairong XIAO
This paper studies the effectiveness of big data technology in mitigating the economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. I exploit the staggered implementation of contact-tracing apps called “health code” in 322 Chinese cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using high-frequency variati...
Keywords: big data, Coronavirus
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Commentaries

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2020, Pandemic

Post-COVID-19 Reconfiguration of the Global Value Chains and China

Bernard YEUNG, Hanming FANG
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Webinar Series

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Scott R. BAKER, Nicholas A. BLOOM, David E. ALTIG, Jose Maria BARRERO, Brent MEYER, Philip BUNN, Scarlet CHEN, Julia LEATHER, Emil MIHAYLOV, Paul MIZEN, Thomas RENAULT, Gregory THWAITES, Pawel SMIETANKA, Nicholas PARKER
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about business growth, forecaster disagreement about ...
Keywords: forward-looking uncertainty measures, volatility, COVID-19, Coronavirus
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks

Neng WANG, Jinqiang YANG, Harrison HONG
We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth but firms can mitigate damages. We estimate a large ...
Keywords: COVID-19, stochastic epidemic model, transmission volatility, Risk management, stock valuation
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