Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our measure...
Keywords: Business cycle, macroeconomic news, economic sentiment, monetary policy, textual analysis, machine learning, big data, neural networks
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Using a structural model, we estimate the value of data to fixed income investors and study its main drivers. In the model, data is more valuable for bonds that are volatile and for which price-insensitive liquidity trades are more likely. Empirically, we find that the value of data on corporate bon...
Keywords: value of data, information, fixed income, corporate bond, mutual fund
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Using valuation models of financial analysts, we identify the drivers of disagreement in stock valuation. Disagreement in the discount rate is as important in explaining the variation in a stock’s intrinsic value as the disagreement in expected cash flows. Analysts derive the discount rate by esti...
Keywords: Disagreement, Security Valuation, Model Inputs, Subjective Beliefs
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Inventory models posit that return autocorrelation is affected by collateral, volume, and expected volatility. We show that daily market autocorrelations are lower on negative return days, consistent with collateral concerns. Unlike previous literature, we document a strong role of volatility on aut...
Keywords: Market Liquidity, Volatility, Serial Correlation, Collateral, Liquidity Risk
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Frequent, yet uninformed, market timing recommendations by a financial advisory firm generate significant flows for Chilean pension funds. These flows give rise to substantial changes in the Chilean foreign exchange due to the funds’ high allocation to international equities. Hedging by local bank...
Keywords: exchange rates, CIP deviations, Pension Funds, market efficiency
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