Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Our paper examines sell-side analyst reports and online stock opinion articles, which recommend that investors buy stocks that, based on prior literature, trade at comparatively high prices and earn low future returns. We conduct textual analysis and test whether the justifications provided in these...
Keywords: Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns, Anomalies, Risk, Behavioral Finance, Textual Analysis.
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our measure...
Keywords: Business cycle, macroeconomic news, economic sentiment, monetary policy, textual analysis, machine learning, big data, neural networks
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Using a structural model, we estimate the value of data to fixed income investors and study its main drivers. In the model, data is more valuable for bonds that are volatile and for which price-insensitive liquidity trades are more likely. Empirically, we find that the value of data on corporate bon...
Keywords: value of data, information, fixed income, corporate bond, mutual fund
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Using valuation models of financial analysts, we identify the drivers of disagreement in stock valuation. Disagreement in the discount rate is as important in explaining the variation in a stock’s intrinsic value as the disagreement in expected cash flows. Analysts derive the discount rate by esti...
Keywords: Disagreement, Security Valuation, Model Inputs, Subjective Beliefs
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Inventory models posit that return autocorrelation is affected by collateral, volume, and expected volatility. We show that daily market autocorrelations are lower on negative return days, consistent with collateral concerns. Unlike previous literature, we document a strong role of volatility on aut...
Keywords: Market Liquidity, Volatility, Serial Correlation, Collateral, Liquidity Risk
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