Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We explore the effect of negative nominal interest rates on bank profitability and behavior using non‐structural techniques and a cross‐country panel of over 5,200 banks in 27 countries.  Our data set includes annual observations for Japanese and European banks between 2010 and 2017, and covers...
Keywords: zero, effective, lower, bound, data, firm, empirical, regression, panel, deposit, size
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

A country's exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries.  I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey which asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance of ...
Keywords: empirical, panel, data, gravity, Gallup, leadership, approval, positive, international
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs.  We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963‐2014.  We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines...
Keywords: protection, output, productivity, unemployment, inequality, exchange rate, trade balance
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We study political influences on private banks receiving government funds.  Using spatial discontinuities associated with congressional district borders, we show that recipient banks of the 2008 TARP program increased mortgage and small business lending by 23-60% more in census tracts located just ...
Keywords: empirical, data, panel, fixed, effect, county, district, congress, policy, mortgage
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We test whether household wealth shocks affect professional misconduct by financial advisors. We use a panel of advisors’ home addresses and examine within-advisor variation relative to other advisors who work at the same firm and live in the same ZIP code. We show that advisors increase miscon...
Keywords: Financial advisors, Brokers, Financial misconduct, Fraud, Household finance, Real estate, bankruptcy
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