ABFER 13th ANNUAL CONFERENCE
The call for papers is now open for the ABFER 13th Annual Conference. The conference will be held on 18-21 May 2026 in Singapore
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12th ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM
The 12th AMPF commenced on 22 May 2025 with a joint dinner with ABFER, followed by the forum on 23 May 2025 at Conrad Singapore Orchard
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CALL FOR POSTERS 2025
The Call for Posters is now closed. Selected papers will be informed by end of February. The poster sessions will be held on 20 and 21 May 2025 at the ABFER 12th Annual Conference.
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CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT: CHINA AND ASIA
Webinar series on every third Thursday of the month
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INDUSTRY OUTREACH PANEL
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  • ABFER 13th ANNUAL CONFERENCE
  • 12th ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM
  • CALL FOR POSTERS 2025
  • CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT: CHINA AND ASIA
  • INDUSTRY OUTREACH PANEL

SOME IMPORTANT FACTS ABOUT US

4265 SUBMITTED Papers submitted to
Annual Conference
11415 AUTHORS Representing number
of authors
684 PRESENTED Papers presented at
Annual Conferences
218 JOURNALS Papers published in
significant journals
5200 PARTICIPANTS Participants at
Annual Conferences

Webinar Series

 

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Large Language Models and Return Prediction in China

The authors examine whether large language models (LLMs) can extract contextualized representation of Chinese public news articles to predict stock returns. Based on representativeness and influences, the authors consider seven LLMs: BERT, RoBERTa, FinBERT, Baichuan, ChatGLM, InternLM, and their ensemble model. The authors show that news tones and return forecasts extracted by LLMs from Chinese news significantly predict future returns. The value-weighted long-minus-short portfolios yield annualized returns between 35% and 67%, depending on the model. Building on the return predictive power, the authors further investigate its implications for information efficiency. The authors show the assimilation speed of the LLM signals is two days, and they contain fundamental information. The signals can be especially helpful under higher frictions, when firms have less efficient information environments, more complex news, and higher retail holdings. Interestingly, heterogeneous investors load their future trades oppositely on LLM signals upon news releases. These findings suggest LLMs can be helpful in processing public news, and thus contribute to overall market efficiency.

21
Nov
2024
Thursday

Session Chair: Bernard YEUNG
Emeritus Professor, National University of Singapore; Visiting Chair Professor, Southern University of Science and Technology (Shenzhen); Exco Member, Council and Senior Fellow, ABFER

Updated 17 Dec 2024

Session Format

Each session lasts for 1 hour 10 minutes (25 minutes for the author, 25 minutes for the discussant and 20 minutes for participants' Q&A). Sessions will be recorded and posted on ABFER website, except in cases where speakers or discussants request us not to.

Registration

Please register here to receive a unique Zoom link. (Notice: Videos and screenshots will be taken during each session for the purpose of marketing, publicity purposes in print, electronic and social media)