ABFER 13th ANNUAL CONFERENCE
The call for papers is now open for the ABFER 13th Annual Conference. The conference will be held on 18-21 May 2026 in Singapore
FIND OUT MORE
12th ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM
The 12th AMPF commenced on 22 May 2025 with a joint dinner with ABFER, followed by the forum on 23 May 2025 at Conrad Singapore Orchard
FIND OUT MORE
CALL FOR POSTERS 2025
The Call for Posters is now closed. Selected papers will be informed by end of February. The poster sessions will be held on 20 and 21 May 2025 at the ABFER 12th Annual Conference.
Find out more
CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT: CHINA AND ASIA
Webinar series on every third Thursday of the month
FIND OUT MORE
INDUSTRY OUTREACH PANEL
FIND OUT MORE
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • ABFER 13th ANNUAL CONFERENCE
  • 12th ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM
  • CALL FOR POSTERS 2025
  • CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT: CHINA AND ASIA
  • INDUSTRY OUTREACH PANEL

SOME IMPORTANT FACTS ABOUT US

4265 SUBMITTED Papers submitted to
Annual Conference
11415 AUTHORS Representing number
of authors
684 PRESENTED Papers presented at
Annual Conferences
218 JOURNALS Papers published in
significant journals
5200 PARTICIPANTS Participants at
Annual Conferences

Webinar Series

 

ebanner_cmd.jpg

Structured Beliefs and Fund Performance: An LLM-Based Approach

Leveraging the unprecedented capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to assess sentiment across different topics within the same text, the authors extract the structured beliefs of all mutual fund managers in China based on their reports spanning 2008 to 2023, regarding the economy, government policies, and financial markets. Specifically, the authors construct a measure for countercyclical policy (CCP) beliefs, where managers anticipate that government policies will counteract economic shocks. The authors find that funds exhibiting frequent CCP beliefs (CCP funds) significantly outperform other funds. To explain this superior performance, the authors demonstrate that CCP funds’ market beliefs have stronger predictive power for market returns, their asset allocations show a stronger correlation with their market beliefs, and their performance is directly linked to their time-varying CCP beliefs.

16
Jan
2025
Thursday

Session Chair: Zheng (Michael) SONG
Wei Lun Professor of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong and Senior Fellow, ABFER

Updated 16 Jan 2025

Session Format

Each session lasts for 1 hour 10 minutes (25 minutes for the author, 25 minutes for the discussant and 20 minutes for participants' Q&A). Sessions will be recorded and posted on ABFER website, except in cases where speakers or discussants request us not to.

Registration

Please register here to receive a unique Zoom link. (Notice: Videos and screenshots will be taken during each session for the purpose of marketing, publicity purposes in print, electronic and social media)