Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia

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May 2016

To Stay or to Migrate? Rural-urban Migration and the One-Child Policy in China

Pei-Ju LIAO, Yin-Chi WANG, Wang PING, Chong Kee YIP
With a dynamic macroeconomic model built to tailor the institutions of China, this paper studies how fertility control and migration policies shaped the rural-urban migration pattern and the economic development of China. Different from the reduced-form approach adopted by most of the existing liter...
Keywords: Rural-Urban Migration, Fertility, urbanization, development
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2015

The Economics of Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

Pierre-Olivier GOURINCHAS, Philippe MARTIN
Despite a formal 'no-bailout clause', we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to 43% (Greece) of 2011 output during the recent Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and un...
Keywords: sovereign debt, Bailouts, Eurozone Crisis
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2014

How Constraining Are Limits to Arbitrage?

Wenlan QIAN, Alexander LJUNGQVIST
Limits to arbitrage play a central role in behavioral finance. They interfere with arbitrage processes so that security prices can deviate from true values for extended periods of time. We show empirically that limits to arbitrage need not be binding even in settings characterized by extreme costs o...
Keywords: Limits to arbitrage, short sale constraints, mispricing, Short Selling, activist short sellers, trading strategies, Behavioral finance, market efficiency
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2019

Does fiscal policy matter for stock-bond return correlation?

Hao ZHOU, Ji ZHANG, Tao ZHA, Erica X.N. LI
We explore an important role of monetary-fiscal policy interactions in explaining three stylized facts: (1) a positive correlation of stock and bond returns in 1971-2001 and a negative one after 2001, (2) a negative correlation of consumption and inflation in 1971-2001 and a positive one after 2001,...
Keywords: Stock-bond return correlation, consumption-inflation correlation, fiscal-monetary policy regime, bond risk premium, technology shock, investment shock
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Webinar Series

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Pandemic

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Aug 2020

The Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: An Optimistic Preliminary Account

Pinelopi Koujianou GOLDBERG, Tristan REED
Early in 2020, the general expectation was that the coronavirus pandemic’s effects would be more severe in developing countries than in advanced economies, both on the public health and economic fronts. Preliminary evidence as of June 2020 supports a more optimistic assessment. To date, most low- ...
Keywords: Coronavirus, Pandemic, emerging markets, Developing Countries
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