Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We study how the social transmission of public news influences investors' beliefs and securities markets. Using data on investor social networks, we find that earnings announcements from firms in higher-centrality locations generate stronger immediate price, volatility, and trading volume reactions....
Keywords: Social Networks, Information Diffusion, Earnings Announcement, Investor Attention, Disagreement, Social Finance
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresse...
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AMPF Papers

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Policy Note

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May 2023

Inflation expectations of households and firms are central determinants in all dynamic macro models. Yet, empirical evidence suggests these decision makers form expectations in ways that deviate from the assumptions in these models: on average, inflation expectations are biased upwards relative to e...
Keywords: Macroeconomics, Intertemporal Choice, Consumption, Savings, Surveys, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Experiments, Financial Decision-making, Cognition, Communication.
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AMPF Papers

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Commissioned Paper

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May 2023

Economists posit a critical real rate of interest below which the monetary policy setting is inflationary and above which it is deflationary. For roughly a decade after the Great Financial Crisis, many economists linked deflationary pressures to the difficulty central banks encountered in attaining ...
Keywords: interest rate, deflation, inflation, global factors, market indicators
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AMPF Papers

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Keynotes

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May 2023

A rise in household debt in the medium run produces a boom-bust pattern in economic activity, and the subsequent downturn after a large rise in household debt can be especially painful (e.g., Mian, Sufi and Verner (2017), Mian and Sufi (2018), Mian, Sufi and Verner (2020)). The original research sho...
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