Senior Fellows/Fellows

|

Senior Fellows/Fellows

We develop a new class of tree-based models (P-Trees) for analyzing (unbalanced) panel data using economically guided, global (instead of local) split criteria that guard against overfitting while preserving interpretability. To generalize security sorting and better estimate the efficient frontier,...
Keywords: Asset Pricing, Decision Tree, Factors, Interpretable AI, Investment
  • View
  • Download
  • Bookmark
  •    |   

Senior Fellows/Fellows

|

Senior Fellows/Fellows

We present a systematic approach to detect fake transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges by exploiting robust statistical and behavioral regularities associated with authentic trading. Our sample consists of 29 centralized exchanges, among which the regulated ones feature transaction patterns consis...
Keywords: Bitcoin, CeFi, cryptocurrency, Forensic Finance, Fraud Detection, regulation
  • View
  • Download
  • Bookmark
  •    |   

Senior Fellows/Fellows

|

Senior Fellows/Fellows

Sparse models, though long preferred and pursued by social scientists, can be ineffective or unstable relative to large models, for example, in economic predictions (Giannone et al., 2021). To achieve sparsity for economic interpretation while effectively exploiting big data for superior empirical p...
Keywords: Asset Pricing, Bayesian Estimation, Decision Tree, Factors, Heterogeneity, Panel Data, Sorting, Spar
  • View
  • Download
  • Bookmark
  •    |   

Senior Fellows/Fellows

|

Senior Fellows/Fellows

This paper casts within a unified economic framework some key challenges for the global economic order: de-globalization; the rising impracticability of global cooperation; and the increasingly confrontational nature of Great Power competition. In these, economics hasbeen weaponised in the service o...
Keywords: epic fail, globalization, Great Powers, Third Nations, world order, zero sum
  • View
  • Download
  • Bookmark
  •    |   

Senior Fellows/Fellows

|

Senior Fellows/Fellows

We use the futures commission merchants (FCMs) reports released by CFTC to construct a frequent (monthly) and timely (one-month delay) market-level leverage measure, based on the aggregate margin of market participants. The derivative-market leverage negatively (positively) predicts returns of risky...
Keywords: Derivative-Market Leverage, Risk Premia, Return Predictability, Risk Aversion
  • View
  • Download
  • Bookmark
  •    |