Senior Fellows/Fellows

Investment and Subjective Uncertainty

Nicholas A. BLOOM, Steven J. DAVIS, Lucia FOSTER, Scott OHLMACHER, Itay SAPORTA-EKSTEN
A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers’ subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed survey measure of uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000 manufacturing plants. W...
Keywords: Subjective expectations, business-level uncertainty
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Application Flows

Steven J. DAVIS, Brenda Samaniego DE LA PARRA
We build and analyze a new U.S. database that links 125 million applications to job vacancies and employer-side clients on Dice.com, an online platform for jobs and workers in software design, computer systems, engineering, financial analysis, management consulting, and other occupations that requir...
Keywords: worker applications, job vacancies, intermediaries, tightness, vacancy durations, non-sequential search, staffing firms, recruitment firms
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Webinar Series

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Capital Market Development: China and Asia

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Mar 2024

EXIM’s Exit: The Real Effects of Trade Financing by Export Credit Agencies

Poorya KABIR, Adrien MATRAY, Karsten MULLER, Chenzi XU
We study the role of export credit agencies—the predominant tool of industrial policy—on firm behavior by using the effective shutdown of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) from 2015-2019 as a natural experiment. We show that firms that previously relied on EXIM support saw a 18%...
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Webinar Series

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Capital Market Development: China and Asia

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Jan 2024

The Value of Bankruptcy Enforcement in Financial Distress: Evidence from the Chinese Bond Market

Bo LI, Mai LI, Songnan LI, Laura Xiaolei LIU
The bankruptcy process in many countries is lengthy and cumbersome, which prevents creditors from getting repaid efficiently in distress. Exploiting the staggered introduction of specialized bankruptcy courts in China, we find that they lead to sizable reductions in the cost of debt financing. In pa...
Keywords: Bankruptcy Resolution, Creditor Protection, Cost of Debt, China’s Bond Market
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Webinar Series

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Innovation, Productivity and Challenges in the Digital Era: Asia and Beyond

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Apr 2023

Reducing Racial Disparities in Consumer Credit: Evidence from Anonymous Loan Applications

Tianyue RUAN, Poorya KABIR
Using a unique experiment of anonymizing online loan applications, we find that anonymous loan applications reduce racial disparities in access to credit. With names on applications, ethnic minority applicants are 10.6% less likely to receive online loan offers than otherwise identical ethnic majori...
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